Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds
| Brewers Odds | +105 |
| Cardinals Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Cardinals host the Brewers on Thursday in the first of a four-game NL Central intradivisional series. Two of the last three meetings between these teams have seen 11 total runs scored.
Will we get another high-scoring affair, or can the pitching limit the scoring this time around?
Brewers Bats Thrive Against Righties
The Milwaukee Brewers travel to St. Louis following a three-game set against the San Diego Padres. Prior to Wednesday, the total has tended to go over in their games as it is 12-8 (60%) over their last 20 contests.
I believe this is a trend that will continue as left-hander Eric Lauer is projected to take the mound for the Brewers. Lauer has had a great start to the season as he is 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.936 WHIP through seven starts.
That being said, Lauer's metrics suggest that we could see some regression soon. This season, Lauer possesses a .313 xwOBA, .244 xBA, and .452 xSLG.
While those metrics are still good, they do not match up with his surface-level stats. Additionally, Lauer's numbers take a dip on the road as he possesses a 3.32 ERA and 1.015 WHIP.
Over his seven starts this season, the total runs scored have gone over 7.5 in four outings (57%). Lauer should get some good run support as the Brewers are slated to go against right-hander Adam Wainwright.
When facing right-handed pitchers this season, the Brewers rank 11th in the league in BA, fourth in SLG, fourth in OPS, and fourth in wOBA. Over 267 career plate appearances against Wainwright, this current Brewers roster boasts a .283 BA and .356 wOBA.
The Cardinals Should Continue to Hammer Lefty Pitching
The St. Louis Cardinals enter this contest following Tuesday's 8-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. Tuesday's game was yet another high-scoring affair for the Cardinals as there have been eight or more total runs scored in seven straight and 14 of their last 20 games (70%).
As I mentioned above, right-hander Adam Wainwright is slated to take the mound for the Cardinals. Like Lauer, Wainwright's metrics are good but do not match up with his surface-level stats.
This season, Wainwright boasts a 2.87 ERA and 1.191 WHIP through eight starts. However, he possesses a .332 xwOBA, .258 xBA, and .439 xSLG.
In his one start against the Brewers this season, Wainwright allowed four runs on eight hits in four and one-third innings pitched. Over his eight starts this season, the total runs scored have gone over 7.5 in five outings (63%).
Wainwright should get some good run support as the Cardinals are slated to go against left-hander Eric Lauer. When going against left-handed pitchers this season, the Cardinals rank second in the league in BA, first in SLG, first in OPS, and first in wOBA.
Brewers-Cardinals Pick
This total is set too low based on the surface-level numbers for each starting pitcher. I like this total to go over 7.5 after taking a deeper dive into each guy's metrics, the hitting matchups, and the trends.
We could see some regression from each starting pitcher, especially with how well the Brewers hit righties and the Cardinals hit lefties. The weather could also give us a small boost in this game as the forecast calls for 7-9 MPH winds blowing directly out to center field.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115) | Play up to (-125)
