Brewers – Dodgers Odds, Pick
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+165 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -130 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-200 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +110 |
The Dodgers will look to bounce-back from a 9-3 Independence Day pummeling in yesterday's series opener, and are heavy favorites to do so with Tyler Glasnow (3.23 ERA, 103 IP) set to take on the newly-acquired Aaron Civale (5.07 ERA, 87 IP).
The Brewers enter this series in strong form, with a record of 7-3 over the last 10, and a six-game lead in the division with a record of 52-36. Civale was traded to the Brew Crew from the Tampa Bay Rays two days ago, and will make his first start in the new threads. Through the month of June, pitched to a 4.32 ERA in 25 innings, but has struggled to an ugly 6.10 ERA on the road this season.
Read below for my Brewers vs. Dodgers pick and prediction for Friday, July 5, focusing on a Glasnow prop for Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow.
Milwaukee Brewers
Despite their tremendous record, the Brewers dinged up starting rotation does not look all that convincing for the time being. Still, Brewers starters have combined for a 4.22 ERA over the last month, which ranks 14th in baseball.
Civale has underachieved his preseason projections by a considerable margin thus far, but does appear to be a slightly better pitcher than his 5.07 ERA suggests. He owns an xERA of 4.15, and an xFIP of 4.09 this season. His Stuff+ is down to 100 compared to last seasons mark of 105, and his Location+ is down to 99 from last season's mark of 106.
Over his last five starts Civale holds an xBA of .256, and has struck-out 22% of batters faced. His higher ERA on the road does appear to be slightly more than just bad luck, as he holds an xFIP of 4.36 and has struck-out just 18.2% of batters away on the road this season.
Civale has allowed a slug-rate of .549 on pitches inside the strike zone this season, which is the second highest mark of any qualified starter.
The Brewers have hit to a wRC+ of 105 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .718. They have struck-out 20.8% of the time and hard-hit 33.7% of balls in-play in that span. Joey Ortiz absence from the lineup has been one reason for their slightly lesser splits of late.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Glasnow ranks in the 96th percentile of pitchers with his 33.9% strikeout-rate this season, and that's not overly surprising given his 118 Stuff+ rating, which includes better than average marks on all four of his pitches. Batters are hitting just .223 on pitches in the strike zone versus Glasnow, which is the fourth best mark among qualified starters.
Glasnow holds an xERA of 2.50 and an xFIP of 2.44 this season. He has been particularly dominant inside the pitcher friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, where he owns an ERA of 3.21 and a WHIP of 0nly 0.89.
Glasnow has allowed a slug-rate of just .314 at home since last season, which is the third best mark among qualified starters.
The Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 124 against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, which ranks sixth in baseball. In the time Since Mookie Betts injury on June 16 they have still have hit to a wRC+ of 119 against RHP.
Brewers vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Glasnow features some of the most impressive underlying metrics in baseball, and will likely continue to pushing for the NL Cy Young with elite results moving forward. Even versus a side as strong as the Brewers are, I'm not sure the Dodgers and Glasnow are favored enough in this spot against Civale.
Glasnow has pitched five or more innings in every single start this season except his last matchup, and has a great chance to receive early run support in this spot. There looks to be some value backing the Dodgers to win the first five innings at -130, but my favorite play lies with Glasnow to record a win at anything better than +115.
