Brewers vs. Mets Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+146 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -132 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -174 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +110 |
I spent this past weekend in Connecticut with a bunch of New York Mets fans, and I can confirm firsthand that the vibes are low for the Metropolitans. Despite having the highest payroll in baseball, the Mets are just 5-15 in their last 20 games.
New York has slid into fourth place in the NL East, 15 games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves. After opening with the fourth-best odds to win the World Series, the Mets are now seven games below .500. A good portion of the fanbase has already given up on the season.
After an extra-innings victory over the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, the Milwaukee Brewers are within a half-game of the NL Central lead. The NL Central is currently the most competitive division in baseball — the St. Louis Cardinals are last at 32-45, but only 8.5 games out of first.
A four-game set against the free-falling Mets could help position the Brewers before they play four straight series against division opponents.
Let’s dive into where the betting value lies in the series opener between the Brewers and Mets.
Milwaukee Brewers
With injuries to the likes of Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley and Eric Lauer, Colin Rea has been forced into the rotation for Milwaukee. After making just one MLB appearance in 2021, Rea spent last season playing in Japan.
Rea, who signed a Minor League contract with Milwaukee this past offseason, has been called upon to make 12 starts already. He has pitched to a 4.88 ERA and 4.28 xERA, and ranks in the bottom half of the league in most categories.
It’s clear Rea is nothing more than a replacement-level pitcher, but for a guy who wasn’t expected to be on the roster, he has at least been serviceable. At this point, the Brewers just need someone who can give them something around five innings.
What makes the pitching injuries harder to overcome is the struggles of the Brewers offense. Milwaukee ranks 28th in wRC+ — Christian Yelich is having a bit of a bounce back, but he is the only player on the team with a wRC+ above 110.
New York Mets
At 40 years old, it appears Father Time is finally starting to catch up to Justin Verlander. Coming off an immaculate Cy Young season in which he posted a 1.75 ERA and 18-4 record, his start in Queens has not been as dominant.
Injuries slowed the start of his tenure in New York, and through nine starts, he is just 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA. His 3.88 xERA gives a little hope, but his strikeout rate has dropped more than 7% to a new career low.
His fastball velocity is down a little bit, and as a result, opponents have had no problems squaring up Verlander. He ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in hard-hit rate and the bottom 15% in average exit velocity.
New York’s offense has been mediocre for the majority of the season.
The Mets are 12th in wRC+ and 17th in wOBA — and they've been even worse recently, ranking 23rd in wOBA over the last two weeks. They have gotten power from Pete Alonso, contact from Brandon Nimmo and not much of anything else.
Brewers vs. Mets Betting Pick
While Rea deserves credit for making it back to the big leagues and becoming a serviceable starter, he has allowed at least three runs in eight of his 12 starts, and four of his last five. He’s not generating strikeouts and he has struggled with hard contact.
The same can be said about the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. Verlander’s strikeout rate has tanked to the levels he posted as a rookie. With his curveball not working at all this year, opponents can sit on his fastball. They have been crushing it to the tune of a 54% hard-hit rate.
Both starters have allowed at least four runs in three of their last five starts. Behind them are two struggling bullpens. Milwaukee ranks 23rd in reliever xFIP while the Mets are 25th.
While the offenses for both teams have struggled, this should be a good matchup for them to put some balls in play, generate hard contact and score a few runs.
Pick: Over 8.5 |
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