The Milwaukee Brewers (93-69) pulled even with the New York Mets (89-73) after a thrilling comeback home win yesterday, forcing a Game 3 to decide a winner in their wild card series. Now, they'll turn to rookie Tobias Myers to try to punch their ticket to the NLDS with a victory over New York today.
With Jose Quintana on the bump for the visitors and plenty of well-rested arms in relief, there may be a window here to short the Mets' Game 3 starter and take things a step further by believing in one of the most exciting young players in baseball.
Let's combine a few props as we craft my Mets vs Brewers parlay picks for Game 3 on Thursday, October 3.
Brewers vs Mets Parlay Picks for Game 3
- Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
- Jackson Chourio 2+ Total Bases (+125)
- Mark Vientos 2+ Total Bases (+120)
Parlay Odds: +650 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
It appears we should throw the last two weeks of the regular season out the window. After striking out at worse than a 30% clip in that span, the Brewers have only punched out 12 times through two games, outperforming the Mets in that category. In fact, neither of New York's starters have managed more than four strikeouts, despite working at least five innings, which leads me to believe this isn't the night to bet on Jose Quintana's punchouts.
It's not as if any night is truly a good one to bet on Quintana to sit down hitters. He posted just an 18.8% strikeout rate this year, something that's unsurprising with a 21.6% clip for his career, opting to pitch to contact on the ground yet again with his sinker. The Brewers were right around the middle of the league in whiff rate against left-handed sinkers this season with a tidy .277 Expected Batting Average and .446 Expected Slugging, so it would appear this isn't an arduous spot for the offense.
Quintana's been excellent since the start of September, but here in the postseason he shouldn't be tasked with working deep into this game with the Mets' bullpen incredibly well rested and entering an elimination game where they'll look to deploy everyone they possibly can in relief. That should keep both starters' strikeouts to a minimum, but I like Quintana's side a bit better.
Jackson Chourio 2+ Total Bases (+125)
Jackson Chourio now has two hits in each of his first two postseason games, including two home runs in Game 2 on Wednesday. This has all the makings of a free space in your parlay, considering he's already gone 3-for-5 with a home run against Quintana in their two meetings with a .329 xBA and .472 xSLG on contact.
Chourio may have been a reverse platoon splits guy in 2024, but still managed a .267 average against lefties and improved drastically in the second half with a .304 xBA and .475 xSLG in the split. He also owned a .441 xSLG against the few amount of sinkers he faced from lefties in that time around a middling xBA, cutting down on whiffs in the process, so I think the chances that he finds extra bases here are high.
At a certain point you just have to ride the wave, and after finishing the year hitting .333 in his last nine games before a torrid start to this series, you'd be a fool to bet against the rookie sensation in a deciding game.
Mark Vientos 2+ Total Bases (+120)
There are a lot of ways to attack Tobias Myers, who has leaned on a fastball with excellent Stuff+ to get to the big leagues at 26 years old but has been rather unassuming with a .252 xBA and .420 xSLG in 138 innings. I like Mark Vientos the most.
The young slugger owns a combined .318 average and .719 slugging percentage against fastballs and cutters this year from right-handers, backed by expected marks that are just marginally below the results. He grades out as the second-best Met in this regard, and filtering by Myers' average velocity and spin rate still looks to be a daunting task with an xSLG well over .600.
He may have struck out in his only appearance against the rookie Myers, but he's managed to limit the damage to just one punchout in each of the first two games this series as he's looked to be a bit tidier with his approach. I think he'll get the bat on the ball a few times, and with the way he's done damage all year should be a good bet to go for extra bases if he doesn't enjoy a multi-hit night.
