Despite a nightmare travel spot for the New York Mets (89-73), they stormed into Milwaukee and rode a five-run 5th inning to a Game 1 win over the Brewers (93-69).
The Mets will turn the ball over to Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47 ERA), looking to complete the sweep in the Wild Card, while the Brewers task Frankie Montas (7-11, 4.84 ERA) with their season on the line. Milwaukee enters as a slight favorite here once again.
Can New York continue its second-half breakout behind MVP candidate Francisco Lindor (.273 AVG, 33 HR), or will the Brewers even up the series and create a do-or-die Thursday night scenario?
Here's my same-game parlay including predictions for Mets vs. Brewers:
Brewers vs Mets Parlay Picks for Wednesday
- William Contreras to Record a Hit (-180)
- Brandon Nimmo to Record an RBI (+175)
- Brice Turang to Record a Stolen Base (+175)
Parlay Odds: +1000 (Bet365)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Hit Prop
William Contreras to Record a Hit (-210)
Let’s start with a minus-money appetizer to kick off this same-game parlay. While it’s been a quiet last couple of weeks for William Contreras, he is one of the most reliable bats for the Brewers, especially against left-handed pitching.
Over the last 30 days, Contreras is among the top 30 in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (146). In general, he is hitting .313 against southpaws this season, with a 38% extra-base hit rate.
The underlying numbers on Contreras are impressive. He ranks in the 94th percentile of all hitters in average exit velocity and 91st in hard-hit rate (49.5%).
Are walks a concern? Sure. He has been walked at least one time in nine of his last 15 games (60%). Manaea is one of the better arms he’ll face, but Contreras is 2-for-6 in his career against the lefty.
Even with a slow month for Contreras, he hit .257 in September, along with a hit in nine of his last 13 games. His strikeout rate remains a career-best 20.5% and should continue to provide stability in the middle of this Brewers lineup.
RBI Prop
Brandon Nimmo to Record an RBI
I’m still high on Brandon Nimmo despite his struggles at the plate. Based on Baseball Savant’s rolling xwOBA leaderboard, Nimmo is due for positive regression (.345 xwOBA).
While Nimmo is hitting just .189 in the month of September, he has been an RBI machine. Not counting the season finale when the Mets were checked out, Nimmo has recorded an RBI in seven of his last 11 games (64%).
He has cemented himself in the order right behind on-base machine Lindor and hard-to-strikeout Jose Iglesias. There should be plenty of RBI opportunities against Montas, who has really struggled with command (10.1 BB%) and hard-hit rate (43.1%, 13th percentile).
Nimmo’s underlying metrics are promising, even if his average (.224) and success have not always been there. He doesn’t chase out of the zone and has a great eye and his hard-hit rate (47.4%) ranks tied for first on the team with Lindor.
Also, for what it’s worth, Montas’ splits take a nose dive against left-handed hitters. While he has shut down righties (.209 average, .616 OPS), it’s been a different story against lefties (.276, .866).
Do not be surprised to see Nimmo find the outfield seats tonight, but I’ll play it safe with an RBI prop instead.
Stolen Base Prop
Brice Turang to Record a Stolen Base
Game 1 flashed the wheels that Brice Turang had, starting the game with two doubles and an infield single. He ranks in the 94th percentile in sprint speed and has recorded a stolen base in seven of the Brewers’ last 15 games (47%).
One thing to note is that against the Mets, in particular, the Brewers are extremely aggressive. If you look at Turang’s numbers, he has seven stolen bases against New York this season, including two stolen bases against Manaea last week.
The Brewers did not run much on the Mets in Game 1 and I expect that aggressiveness to resume with their season on the line in Game 2. Turang leads off and even though it’s a lefty-lefty matchup, I’m still confident in his ability to get on base.
Turang ranks in the 97th percentile in whiff rate and 72nd in xBA (.263). He puts the ball in play and, with elite speed and an above-average eye (8.1 BB%), should get on once, if not twice on Wednesday.
