Brewers vs. Mets Odds
| Brewers Odds | +130 |
| Mets Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The New York Mets return to Citi Field after a 10-game West Coast road trip to take on the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night.
Veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt takes the mound for the Mets while the slumping Brewers turn to Adrian Houser. Milwaukee has been in a slump and lost eight of its last nine.
Can the Brewers take down the first-place Mets behind Houser, or will the Mets bat prove to be too much?
Will Houser and the Brewers Find Some Momentum on the Road?
Houser had been long overdue for negative regression, and the Phillies took advantage last week, tagging the right-hander up for five runs over six innings.
Houser remains on my fade list; his xERA sits at 4.57 — over a half-run higher than his actual ERA — and opponents have a 281 xBA against him. His Walk Rate is near double digits, too.
But what's arguably most concerning is the drastic drop in his Ground Ball Rate. Last season, Houser generated grounders nearly 60 percent of the time.
This year? It's all the way down at 46.6 percent.
Houser's main pitch, the sinker, has been ineffective in 2022. Instead of generating double plays, opponents have a .328 xBA against it. His curveball, too, has been torn apart (.389 xBA).
His ERA also significantly declines away from home. In his five road starts this season, he has a 5.32 ERA, and opponents have slashed .281/.352/.458. His K/BB Rate also nearly halves on the road.
The Brewers will be without Kolten Wong, who was placed on the Injured List a couple days ago, and Luis Urias is questionable for Tuesday night. He left Sunday's game with hamstring tightness.
As a whole, the Brewers offense grades out around average against right-handed pitching. They are 14th in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA.
Can You Bank on Regression for Bassitt and the Mets?
Unlike years past, the New York Mets offense has been a driving factor toward success in 2022.
The offseason additions of Mark Canha and Starling Marte have bolstered the lineup while Jeff McNeil has bounced back from a poor 2021 campaign. Pete Alonso (156 wRC+, .275 ISO) has also been incredible.
Tuesday night is a perfect matchup for this Mets offense because they've hit right-handers hard all season. As a team, they slash .272/.339/.420 and rank second in wRC+ and third in wOBA.
This is a team that, while they don't hit for much power aside from Alonso, is always threatening.
Bassitt takes the mound for New York looking to bounce back from a six-run beatdown by the Padres last time out. Most of his struggles have come on the road, however, where his ERA is 5.17.
But at Citi Field? It's all the way down at 3.65.
Bassitt's advanced metrics suggest he's due for positive regression. Opponents have an xBA of just .230 against the 33-year-old, and his xERA (3.53) is nearly a run lower than his actual ERA (4.35).
The only area for concern has been his Barrel Rate, where he ranks in the 36th percentile of all pitchers. He is currently giving up 1.45 HR/9, a half home run higher than his career average.
However, he returns to a mostly pitcher-friendly ballpark in Citi Field on a mound where he's been at his best this season.
Brewers-Mets Pick
This is an interesting matchup. The Brewers have been sliding in June and now turn to Houser, a pitcher on my fade list for the foreseeable future.
I'm just not high on the 29-year-old who has been getting hit hard in 2022, yet still he has an ERA that sits under 4.00. He's not getting the double-play ball as frequently, and the .281 xBA against him is quite concerning.
Now he heads on the road — where he's been shelled this season — and draws an offense that has been hitting the ball well all season and is notorious for hitting right-handed pitching hard.
I trust the Mets offense to get to Houser early behind Bassitt and am looking to back them on the first half run line.
The Mets bullpen has been shaky at times, and I'd rather avoid any meltdowns and instead focus on where I see the most value: Bassitt vs Houser.
I do lean toward the Mets First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 as well, as I think they'll force an early exit for Houser.
Look for New York to return to Citi Field with a bang on Tuesday night.
Pick: New York Mets F5 -0.5 (-115, to -125) | Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)
