Brewers vs. Orioles Odds
| Brewers Odds | -188 |
| Orioles Odds | +158 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The rubber match between the Brewers and the Orioles is sure to be a great one as each team's respective ace will be toeing the slab.
After being blanked in game one, Milwaukee bounced back to take game two of the series. Its offense finally showed some signs of life after an abysmal first few games of the season.
It will be interesting to see if either of these offenses can get it going as they are neck and neck with each other in terms of team batting average ranks.
Milwaukee is 22nd with a .213 team average, and Baltimore is 23rd with a .207 team average. These two clubs are undoubtedly due to produce; however, for our sake, let's hope they pick it up after this one.
Brewers Need to Support Burnes Early
In his Opening Day start against the Cubs, it took the reigning NL CY Young Award winner a bit to settle down. Perhaps the most shocking thing about his outing is that he walked the first batter he faced on the season.
That is something that did not come until Burnes had already stuck out 58 batters last year. While Burnes would go on to uncharacteristically issue two more walks, he would eventually settle down. However, it was a bit too late as his early trouble put the Brewers in a small hole that their offense could not climb out of.
The key here is for the Brewers to scratch across a few runs early against John Means. While that is no easy task, the Brew Crew is well equipped when it comes to facing left-handed starters.
Multiple bats in this Milwaukee lineup have tremendous splits against left-handers. Some notable ones are McCutchen, who is a career .308 hitter against lefties. Renfroe is hitting .261 with a .291 ISO; Yelich has proven to handle lefties with his .277 career average. Lastly, you have Brosseau, who is drastically better and holds a .275 average when facing left-handers.
With all that being said, three of those four men have faced Means in their career, and the only one with any success is Mike Brosseau, who is 5-of-11 against Means. McCutchen is one for three, and Renfroe has been held hitless in four at-bats.
If the Brewers can get an early run across, it should help Burnes settle in much faster. If Burnes is locked in early, he may only need a few runs of support as we've seen how dominant he can be.
O's Bats Will be Kept Quiet
Facing Corbin Burnes is a daunting task. However, it may be especially tough for this Baltimore lineup. Through five games, the Orioles are leading the league in K percentage. Burnes was fifth in the league in strikeouts last season.
It's not just the swing and miss rate that points to this being a long day for Baltimore. Per Inside Edge, Ryan Mountcastle has the fourth-highest chase rate since the start of 2020. Trey Mancini hit just .196 on pitches that were 95 mph or great last season. 31% of Anthony Santander's strikeouts came on 95+ mph fastballs and nearly half of Burnes' strikeouts came from his cutter, which sits at 95.
It is no wonder that Burnes also has the highest strikeout projection on the slate today, according to Action Labs.
Those three numbers essentially make the middle of the Baltimore order nonexistent, and that severely hurts their chances of producing much offense in this one.
Brewers-Orioles Pick
It is clear that the Orioles are in for a long day at the dish, and it would not surprise me to see them be completely shut down. On the other hand, Milwaukee's offense does not instill much confidence despite their split advantages.
If the Brewers can get ahead early, that may be all they need. Take the under and enjoy this pitcher's duel.
Pick: Under 8 -120 (Play to 7.5)
