Brewers vs Padres Thursday Odds & Prediction (6/20)
Via Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Jackson Merrill #3 of the San Diego Padres celebrates after hitting a walk-off solo home run during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics at Petco Park on June 12, 2024 in San Diego, California.
Brewers vs Padres Thursday Odds & Prediction (6/20)
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-108 | 9 +100o /-120u | -1.5 +150 |
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-112 | 9 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -180 |
On Thursday night, the Padres will hope to bounce back from an ugly East Coast road swing in which they went 1-5 and lost possession of one of the three NL Wild Card slots. They're sending Adam Mazur (7.82 ERA, 12 2/3 IP) to the Petco Park mound to take on the Brewers and Bryse Wilson (3.64 ERA, 63 1/3 IP).
Brewers vs Padres odds have the Padres as slight -112 moneyline favorites; the over/under is set at 9 (+100o /-120u) on DraftKings. You can find my betting prediction — a Jackson Merrill player prop — for Brewers vs Padres below.
Milwaukee Brewers
Wilson does appear to be a far less effective pitcher in 2024 than he was throughout his excellent 2023 season. His 3.98 ERA even seems to be slightly favorable to his actual level, as he owns a 4.64 xERA and 4.68 xFIP. Over his last seven starts, Wilson has a Hard-hit Rate of 48% with a Strikeout Rate of just 15%.
Wilson's Stuff+ rating is down to 92 this season, compared to 102 in 2023, while his Location+ rating remains the same at 102.
Batters have a Hard-hit Rate of 56% on Wilson's strikes this season, and a Chase Rate of just 23%.
Wilson has struggled badly versus left-handed batters by allowing a 1.84 WHIP, a .544 Slug-rate and .404 wOBA this season. Since the 2022 season, left-handed batters have a Hard-hit Rate of 48% against Wilson.
The Brewers have hit to a wRC+ of 101 against right-handed pitching over the last month. They have struck-out 23.1% of the time and made hard contact 30.2% of the time over that span. They have no positions on the IR and should field their top lineup in tonight's matchup.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have one of the more effective lineups in the league against right-handed pitching this season and have remained in strong form recently as well. They have hit to a wRC+ of 111 against right-handed pitching for the season and hit to an identical 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last month. San Diego also has the league's lowest Strikeout Rate in that span at just 16.2%.
Jackson Merrill has been excellent against righties throughout the start of his strong rookie campaign. He has slugged .435 with a .783 OPS across 84 plate appearances with the sixth-best batting average in the NL versus righties at .310.
Merrill has had an excellent June by hitting to an OPS of .903 and Slugging .590 while missing on just 7% of swings in the strike zone over the last two weeks.
Mazur has underachieved his 4.80 xERA and 4.68 xFIP by some extent, in large part due to a 61% Strand Rate and a .308 BABIP. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 95 and a Location+ of 94.
Brewers vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
The moneyline and runline prices in this game are fair because Wilson and Mazur look slightly more comparable than their reputations and ERA suggest. The Padres offense continues to boast a number of highly encouraging signs and has remained one of the best in the league versus right-handed pitching over the last month.
This could be viewed as somewhat of a letdown spot for the Padres as well, as they return home from a lengthy road trip.
It does look like a highly favorable spot for Merrill to continue his strong play in particular. Merrill has been making a ton of hard contact lately and gets a great matchup against a pitcher who has been torched by lefties.
At +125, there is value backing Merrill to record over 1.5 total bases, and I would play this down to +120.
Pick: Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 (DraftKings | Play to +120)
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