Brewers vs Red Sox Odds | Friday MLB Prediction
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+115 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -178 |
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-135 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +150 |
Bryse Wilson has feasted off good fortune thus far in 2024. However, his opponent Friday will be the Boston Red Sox, who have not been the best against right-handed pitching in the last month. The Milwaukee Brewers have been similar and have a relatively top-heavy lineup against righties.
The major difference is Milwaukee is tasked with facing Kutter Crawford, who has been spectacular this year. Crawford limits hard contact and has encouraging enough peripherals that his favorable results could continue.
Since both bullpens are in decent shape, the under could be in play here with these lineups. Let's take a closer look before offering a Brewers vs. Red Sox pick.
Brewers vs Red Sox odds have the Sox as -135 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 9.5 (-110o / -110u).
Milwaukee Brewers
Wilson owns a 2.79 ERA against an xERA that is above 4.00. Hard contact has been a major issue for him in 2024, with an Average Exit Velocity of 90 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate that ranks in the ninth percentile. He does not strike out many and sometimes has trouble with control. However, usually he can throw about four innings and hand the ball to a pretty reliable relief staff — so as long as he can throw well against the top of the order for the Red Sox, the Brewers are in solid shape.
Milwaukee has Rhys Hoskins on the Injured List right now, which hinders this lineup’s power numbers. Of those with more than 10 plate appearances on the Brewers' active roster, only five batters have a .320+ xwOBA since April 24. William Contreras has been the highlight reel at the dish for the Brew Crew, but overall, they maintain a 111 wRC+ off righties in the last month, which does not tell the whole story.
Milwaukee’s bullpen has been decent. It has a collective 3.94 xFIP with an 8.3% walk rate. The Brewers have five arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, and Janson Junk and Joel Payamps are not too far off either. Needless to say, there is plenty of artillery the Brewers can throw once Wilson exits.
Boston Red Sox
Crawford has been great so far. His xERA is 3.21 against a 2.17 ERA, so yes, negative regression is in the cards, but those numbers are still impressive. His Barrel Rate is only 6.2%, his Average Exit Velocity is under 88 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 87th percentile. Crawford does not always keep the ball on the ground, but since the bottom of Milwaukee’s order is not necessarily powerful, he can get away with that shortcoming.
The Red Sox are similar to the Brewers in that they are missing a key player in Masataka Yoshida. Rafael Devers has been torching righties, but otherwise, this lineup holds a team 105 wRC+ with a sub-7% walk rate in the last month. Essentially, Devers is partially inflating this team number.
Boston’s relief staff is comparable to Milwaukee’s. In fact, their xFIP has been better over the last month at a collective 3.72. They walk around 8% of hitters with a 23.6% strikeout mark. They have five arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, but since Crawford can pitch much deeper into games than Wilson, that should be more than enough. The back end of the relief staff, like Kenley Jansen, could have issues against a patient lineup, but otherwise they will back up Crawford nicely when his outing is done.
Brewers vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
Runs should come at a premium in this ballgame. Wilson is not the best starter, but the Brewers do a good job of pulling him at the right time. Meanwhile, Crawford should pitch deep into this game and easily keep the Milwaukee batting order in check at the bottom. Since both bullpens are serviceable, look for pitching to maintain the score toward the end.
Take the under here at the current total of 9 and play that to Under 8.
Pick: Under 9 (-112 via FanDuel)
