Brewers vs. Reds Prediction
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 9 -110/-110 | -1.5 +135 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 9 -110/-110 | +1.5 -162 |
Here's everything you need to know about Brewers vs Reds on Thursday, April 11 — including odds and a prediction.
Brewers vs Reds odds have Milwaukee as a -120 favorite on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 8.5 or 9, depending on the book. The Brewers will hand the ball to right-hander Freddy Peralta, and I'm looking at his prop market for my Brewers vs Reds pick for Thursday.
Let's dive into how I am backing Peralta as I make a Brewers vs Reds prediction.
Milwaukee Brewers
Despite the loss of Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee still boasts a devastating one-two punch with Brandon Woodruff and Peralta. With Woodruff sidelined, Peralta has stepped into the ace role and hasn't disappointed for Milwaukee.
Through two starts this season, Peralta is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even better as he ranks in the 82nd percentile in xERA and the 91st percentile in xBA.
Peralta is a strikeout-heavy pitcher, which is how we'll be backing him on Thursday. Currently, Peralta ranks in the 77th percentile in Whiff% and the 90th percentile in K%.
That success is likely to continue against Cincinnati, a team Peralta has dominated recently. Over his past four starts against the Reds, Peralta is 2-0 with a ridiculous 0.46 ERA.
He also recorded 13 punchouts in his most recent start against Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Reds
That strikeout success is likely to continue. While the Reds' hitting has been solid to start the campaign, they are terrible at avoiding the punchout.
They rank 29th in the league in strikeout when facing right-handed pitching (30.1%). Those strikeout woes are likely to continue against Peralta, especially when considering that the Reds' lineup possesses a fade-worthy 37% strikeout rate and a 34% whiff percentage through 46 career plate appearances against him.
Looking at Thursday's projected starting lineup, seven of Cincinnati's nine hitters possess a strikeout percentage north of 24% this season. Yes, this is a small sample size, but the Reds also ranked 23rd last season in strikeout rate.
Brewers vs. Reds
Betting Pick & Prediction
There is a lot to like about Peralta in this matchup.
He's 2-0 with a 0.46 ERA against the Reds over their past four meetings. He's averaged 1.53 strikeouts per inning over that stretch, so if we just get five innings out of Peralta, he's likely to cash Over 7.4 strikeouts.
Peralta has tossed at least five innings in 19 of his past 20 starts and has tallied 155 strikeouts over that span.
