The New York Mets will roll out right-hander Luis Severino in Game 1 of this NL Wild Card series, while the Milwaukee Brewers return with right-hander Freddy Peralta on Tuesday evening at American Family Field. Opening pitch is set for 5:32 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Let's take a look at the latest betting odds and get to my Brewers vs Mets parlay picks for Game 1.
Brewers vs Mets Parlay Picks for NL Wild Card Game 1
- Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Brewers ML (-135)
Parlay Odds: +290 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Brewers vs Mets, 5:32 p.m. ET
Since they are coming off a must-win situation from Monday, the Mets are forced to hand the ball to right-hander Luis Severino. That is not ideal in a Game 1 matchup that is typically reserved for two aces.
Through 31 starts this season, Severino is 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Those aren't the worst numbers, but they bring into question the desire to fade the right-hander when he also ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, whiff rate and strikeout rate.
You can currently find Severino's strikeout prop at 5.5, a total he has failed to surpass in two of his last three starts.
Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Brewers vs Mets, 5:32 p.m. ET
Meanwhile, Peralta will look to continue his excellence from the end of the regular season. The right-hander surrendered three or fewer runs in each of his final eight starts, posting a 4-2 record over that stretch with a 2.34 ERA.
What makes Peralta so valuable is his ability to rack up strikeouts — he ranks in the 86th percentile in whiff rate and 81st percentile in strikeout rate.
This success is likely to continue against New York, a team Peralta is 2-0 against over his past two meetings with a 0.75 ERA. He recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of those two outings.
Looking at it from the other side, the Mets lineup possesses a 25% strikeout rate and 26.9% whiff rate through 84 combined career plate appearances against Peralta.
Brewers Moneyline (-135)
Brewers vs Mets, 5:32 p.m. ET
Let's just say that the Mets didn't have to fight for their lives on Monday to clinch the postseason. Milwaukee is still the superior team.
It's a wash in the hitting department. Both teams are in the top 10 in practically every category across the board.
Meanwhile, Peralta outranks Severino in ERA, WHIP, xBA and strikeout rate.
That just leaves the bullpens, which is yet another advantage for the Brewers. Their relief staff paces New York's in ERA and FIP.
Now when we finally add in the fact that the Mets are coming off that last-ditch effort on Monday, the Brewers are the team to back in Game 1.
