Brewers vs Twins Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+140 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -155 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-166 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +130 |
The Milwaukee Brewers hope a series win over the Minnesota Twins will get them off the losing trail. It’s been a tough stretch for the Brewers, who still comfortably lead the NL Central, though that speaks more to the NL Central being dreadful than anything else.
Perhaps Saturday’s extra innings bonanza is the precursor to an outstanding Sunday afternoon game. I’ll break down the matchup at length and share my Brewers vs. Twins pick and prediction below.
Editor's Note: Sunday's Brewers vs Twins series finale began in a delay — first pitch is estimated for 1:50 p.m. ET.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers brought in Aaron Civale via a trade with the Rays, and while he's pitching better now, that’s not saying much because his 5.07 ERA made him an instant fade option in Tampa Bay. In Milwaukee, Civale held the Pirates to one run over 6 1/3 innings and allowed four runs to the Dodgers over 5 1/3 innings.
Another issue for Civale is the type of contact opponents make on his offerings. Civale gets hit incredibly hard, ranking in the 30th percentile in XBA, the 31st percentile in average exit velocity and the 44th percentile in hard-hit rate. There aren't a lot of positives other than that he strikes out a batter per inning.
The Brewers' lineup is very top heavy. In July, Christian Yelich might be the league’s top performer with a 221 wRC+ across 53 plate appearances. He's followed by Willie Adames (163 wRC+), Sal Frelick (141 wRC+) and William Contreras (135 wRC+), but that's about it. Every other Brewers' hitter is below the league average in wRC+ this month. It’s hard to trust Milwaukee's lineup when five of the nine regulars are putting up numbers below the league average.
In total, the Brewers season-long wRC+ (111) is above league average by a wide margin, but so much of that success is driving by Yelich and Contreras. The others need to step up.
Minnesota Twins
Taking the ball for the Twins is Joe Ryan, who is a strikeout machine, but coming off a dreadful start against the Giants (five runs over 5 1/3) in his final outing before the break. Ryan’s recent run of starts elevated his ERA to 3.53, but his xERA remains at 3.08 and his FIP sits at 3.44.
Ryan looks a little extra nasty this year. He’s throwing harder than ever, averaging 94 mph on his four seamer compared to 92 last year. He's also walking fewer guys and allowing fewer homers. He’s striking out just 9.73 batters per nine innings, which is low for Ryan’s lofty standards, but still elite.
If there’s any American League team I’m buying stock into pushing for a division title, it’s the Minnesota Twins, and the offense is the main reason why. It boggles my mind that the Twins are 52-51 despite having an offense that has the fourth-highest wRC+ in the league.
The best part? The Twins hit both lefties and righties at elite levels (121 wRC+ versus lefties and 111 versus righties).
Can we start respecting Carlos Correa like the down-ballot MVP candidate he is? The 29-year-old — yes, he's somehow still 29 — owns a 152 wRC+, which is tied for the best in his career (2017 with Houston.)
Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda are on the Injured List, but the Twins' offense remains one of the best in the league. Minnesota will need more from the others, including Byron Buxton, but they've proven to be capable.
Brewers vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
After a quiet showing in Saturday’s game, the Twins' offense surely has some fire in their bellies.
The Twins have the clear pitching advantage with Ryan over Civale, and their lineup is also noticeably better.
It’s hard to pass on the Twins run line (-1.5) at +130 odds. Personally, I’d be willing to grab the Twins at +105 on the run line, so there's plenty of value here in my opinion.
Pick: Twins -1.5
