Phillies vs. Rays Odds
| Phillies | +110 |
| Rays | -135 |
| Total | 9.5 (+100 / -120) |
| Date | Thursday, July 6 |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
The Tampa Bay Rays face the Philadelphia Phillies in the final game of a three-game interleague series on Thursday night.
The Phillies have won the first two games of the series. Meanwhile, the Rays, who have the most wins in the American League, will be trying to avoid a five-game slide.
Cristopher Sanchez will be on the bump for the Phillies while Shawn Armstrong will start for the Rays in what appears to be a bullpen game.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Bryce Harper player prop at BetMGM. The prognostication is expecting Harper to keep his bat hot against the Rays.
It's a bet on the over.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every MLB player prop on the market.
Bryce Harper Player Prop Prediction, Projection
Harper has been having a solid season at the dish (.300 batting average), but he has yet to find his power stroke coming off Tommy John surgery, with only three home runs and 23 RBI.
Although he hasn't been hitting homers, he's still producing for the Phillies. Harper's had a hit in his last seven games and he's had at least two hits in his last five.
The model indicates the likelihood of Harper tallying at least one RBI is higher than what the sportsbooks believe. BetMGM has set the total for over 0.5 RBI tonight at +150, while the under is -200. That's the best price on the over in the market.
The model predicts Harper will have 0.7 RBI tonight. That's good enough for about a 12% betting edge on the over.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBI (+150)
