Cardinals vs Braves Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -200 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +165 |
Tonight, the MLB returns from its All-Star break with a 14-game slate. Entering this series, the Braves hold a 3.5-game lead over the Cardinals for the first NL wild card berth.
The Cardinals will come in with a sweep on their minds to narrow that deficit. They also took two of three from the Braves in St. Louis last month. The Red Birds will start off the second half by handing the ball to ace Sonny Gray. However, they will be road underdogs as the Braves will counter with rookie Spencer Schwellenbach.
Will the rookie out-duel the veteran? Read below for my Cardinals vs. Braves picks for Friday, July 19, featuring a moneyline bet and player prop pick for tonight's contest
St. Louis Cardinals
In the first year of a three-year, $75 million deal, Sonny Gray has given the Cardinals a positive return on their investment with his strong first half. He enters tonight's game 9-6 with a 3.34 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings. He ranks in the 91st percentile in strikeout rate and 78th percentile in walk rate this season. However, Gray may not be in one of his more dominant starts.
When pitching in night games, Gray has a 3.55 ERA compared to 2.66 ERA in day games. The drastic difference comes when he is pitching on the road. At Busch Stadium, he has a 2.14 ERA in home starts, but his ERA jumps to 5.09 in seven road starts. The stark home-road splits will be put to the test tonight, considering he has a 2.41 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings at Truist Park.
If Gray struggles away from home again, his teammates may pick him up. However, they also were one team that may not have been thrilled to head into the All-Star break. This month, the Cardinals are hitting .284 with a .768 OPS and are averaging 5.3 runs per game.
The Cardinals have grown used to Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado carrying the offense in recent years. Goldschmidt has recorded a hit in 12 of his last 14 games, and Arenado is hitting .320 this month, albeit with just one home run. However, they have gotten contributions up and down the lineup recently.
Rookie Masyn Winn leads the team with 3.7 WAR and has grown comfortable in his role as the leadoff hitter. In July, Alec Burleson is hitting .340 with five home runs and 15 runs batted in and a 1.041 OPS. He also had three doubles and five runs batted in against the Braves last month.
Not far behind is Willson Contreras, who is hitting .298 with four home runs, 11 runs batted in, and a 1.036 OPS this month. Brendan Donovan is hitting .346 this month and closed the first half with a three-hit performance last Sunday.
Atlanta Braves
Last season, the Braves had one of the best offenses that the sport has seen in the regular season, hitting over 300 home runs and nearly scoring 1,000 runs. This year, despite returning much of the same cast, it has been more of a grind at the plate.
However, their pitching has carried the way as they lead the league with a 3.40 ERA. Despite losing Spencer Strider for the season in April, the Braves still had three All-Star representives in their rotation with Chris Sale, Max Fried, and first-timer Reynaldo Lopez.
Strider's injury has also opened up a spot in the rotation for rookies such as Spencer Schwellenbach. Not surprisingly, Schwellenbach has been up and down. Through his first six starts, Schwellenbach had a 5.68 ERA. He allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings against the Cardinals last month.
However, he shut down the Phillies and Padres in his last two starts, allowing just two runs in 13 innings while fanning nine. Schwellenbach has lowered his ERA to 4.43 on the year, but with a 3.53 expected ERA, he has been a bit unlucky. He has excelled getting hitters to chase out of the zone while limiting hard contact and walks.
Two Braves hitters I will be keeping an eye on tonight are Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley. Ozuna went into the All-Star break fourth in the MLB with 26 home runs (five this month) and 77 runs batted in. He will also be facing his former team tonight, but he was unable to make them pay in St. Louis as he went just 1-for-11 in the series.
After hitting 30 home runs in each of the last three seasons, Riley hit just 12 in the first half, but half of them have come in the last month, in which he also has a .942 OPS since. He may continue that stretch in the second half.
In 2022, Riley hit .423 with 11 home runs, 25 runs batted, and a 1.344 OPS after many felt he was an All-Star snub. He would eventually cool, but last year he hit .300 home with 21 home runs and 53 runs batted in the second half of the season. He is 2-for-8 with a double against Gray while Ozuna is 3-for-13 with a double and home run against him.
Cardinals vs Braves Pick
Schwellenbach has had four strikeouts in six of his eight starts this season. That includes against the Cardinals, even in a start that he did not pitch all that well. With momentum coming into this outing, I am expecting him to pitch well at home, especially with hitters perhaps a bit sluggish out of the All-Star break.
The Braves are 29-17 at Truist Park this season and are tied for the fifth best home record. They are also hitting .258 at home, compared to .227 on the road. If Gray struggles on the road again, the Braves may be in line to take advantage.
However, with the second best bullpen ERA, they could win a tight low-scoring affair as well. Adding Schwellenbach's strikeouts to Braves ML for a for a player-performance double gives us plus-odds for a Braves victory.
