Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds
| Cardinals Odds | -132 |
| Cubs Odds | +112 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-104/-118) |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Sunday night is the fifth and final game of this NL Central series as the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals. Each team has won two games in this series as they face off in the rubber match on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.
Below, I will walk through a few picks that we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a "same-game parlay," my approach is all-or-nothing.
While that statement is sort of like "the sky is blue," let me explain. In my opinion, it is essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other as we do not get anything from coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that's okay. There is absolutely no difference between going 0/3 or 2/3 on a parlay.
That being said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it is more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have four plays below for Sunday Night Baseball between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.
The Parlay (+428)
- Over 6.5 Total Runs (-295)
- Paul Goldschmidt to Record a Run (-170)
- Nolan Arenado to Record an RBI (+100)
- St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+128)
FanDuel Same-Game Parlay: Cardinals vs. Cubs
Over 6.5 Total Runs (-295)
We are starting off the parlay with an alternate total. The reason why I am buying a few runs from the game total is due to the following trends for each team.
There have been seven or more total runs scored in each game of this series, in 17 of St. Louis' last 19 games (89%), and in 15 of Chicago's last 17 games (88%). For the Cardinals, right-handed veteran Adam Wainwright is projected to take the mound.
There have been seven or more total runs scored in five of his last six starts (83%). On the other side, left-hander Justin Steele is set to the mound for the Cubs. There have been seven or more total runs scored in nine of Steele's 10 starts (90%) this season. St. Louis should tee off on Steele as they have fared well against lefties recently.
Since May 1st, the Cardinals rank second in the league in BA, 11th in SLG, fifth in OPS, and third in wOBA when facing left-handed pitchers. In his lone start against the Cardinals last season, Steele allowed six runs on seven hits in five innings pitched.
Paul Goldschmidt to Record a Run (-170)
If the total runs scored reaches seven, then we obviously need guys to cross the plate. There is no better candidate for this task in this game than Paul Goldschmidt.
Goldschmidt has recorded at least one run in nine of his last 11 games (82%). In his three at-bats against Steele last season, Goldschmidt went 1-3 with a home run.
When facing left-handed pitchers this season, Goldschmidt is putting up video game numbers. Against lefties, Goldschmidt boasts a .514 BA, .595 OBP, .971 SLG, and 1.567 OPS.
Nolan Arenado to Record an RBI (+100)
If Goldschmidt is to cross the plate, the best bet to hit him in is the guy who hits right after Goldschmidt in the batting order. Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last five games (60%).
In his three at-bats against Steele last season, Arenado went 1-3 with a single. Arenado has great power against left-handed pitchers as he boasts a .645 SLG and .978 OPS this season when facing lefties.
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+128)
If we are getting runs from the Cardinals, then it makes sense that they will have a good shot at winning this game. The Cardinals enter this contest in great form as they have won 11 of their last 16 games (69%).
Of those 11 wins, nine have been by at least a two-run margin (82%). Meanwhile, Chicago has lost seven of its last 12 games (58%). Of those seven losses, four have been by at least a two-run margin (57%).
As I mentioned earlier, the pitching duel in this matchup is Wainwright versus Steele. The Cardinals have won in four of Wainwright's last five starts (80%) while the Cubs have lost in six of Steele's last eight starts (75%).
Wainwright has a better ERA and WHIP than Steele. In the hitting department, the Cardinals rank higher in BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA when facing left-handed pitchers than the Cubs rank in those categories when facing right-handed pitchers.
