Tonight, we'll be targeting a certain 40-year old pitcher who's being treated unfairly by the market. Plus, we've made a play on a position player who's been red-hot lately.
For context: The National League Wild Card game will take place in Los Angeles at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Dodgers are heavy favorites, reaching -235 on the ML at the time of this writing.
Meanwhile, the total opened at 8 but was quickly bet down to 7.5 (-110 on both sides).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Adam Wainwright Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165 PointsBet)
Uncle Charlie celebrated his 40th birthday this season, and he's done it in style.
Wainwright pitched more than 100 innings in the second half this season, posting a 2.50 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in the process. The Cardinals have been red-hot, and they've won 13 of Wainwright's last 14 starts.
His strikeout rate has dipped down the stretch, mostly in response to his swinging strike rate dropping:
However, 3.5 is a ridiculously low line. While it's heavily juiced to the over, my research and the projections show value.
Wainwright's hit this number in 27 of his 32 starts this season, good for an 87% hit rate that would imply -540 odds to the over. Plus, our Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected at five strikeouts today, giving us an 11% edge on the current line even with the juiced odds.
This Dodgers' lineup is immense. However, the one time Wainwright faced the Dodgers, he pitched a whopping 8 1/3 innings while striking out four. Plus, he's posted a lifetime 2.66 ERA against L.A.
Wainwright should create enough opportunities to cash this low number, and there's enough value to make this my favorite prop for the NL Wild Card Game.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 PointsBet)
Turner has been red-hot recently. He ended the season on a 17-game hit streak, where he posted a .403 BA and a 1.200 OPS. He knocked 12 extra-base hits during that stretch including seven home runs.
As such, Turner's cashed his total bases prop in nine of his last 10 games, and 17 of his last 30. Moreover, he's cashed his total bases prop in five of his last eight games against St. Louis, with some of those hits coming against Wainwright — Turner is 8-for-19 lifetime against Wainwright with two doubles.
Wainwright is a sinker-curveball pitcher, and while Turner has been excellent against the sinker all season (.609 SLG on the pitch), he's struggled with the changeup. However, he showed improvement against the pitch during his red-hot September:
I believe Wainwright pitches well tonight. But if anyone has a chance to knock him around, it's Turner. I'm willing to make a play on this prop at close to even money.
