Cardinals vs. Marlins Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -142 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +120 |
Roddery Muñoz has looked a little better for the Miami Marlins in his last two outings. He still has issues limiting hard contact and with walks, but the St. Louis Cardinals, who he will face on Tuesday, do not hit the ball hard at all and tend to keep the ball on the ground.
The Cardinals will throw veteran Lance Lynn, who has been serviceable for much of the year but is yet to go more than five innings in June. Walks have been a major issue for Lynn no matter his opponent.
Neither team has been particularly great against righties, though, so backing Muñoz and the Marlins has some value. Let's dive into this matchup and offer a Cardinals vs. Marlins pick.
St. Louis Cardinals
Lynn has a 3.75 ERA against a 4.17 xERA. As stated above, he has been fine and slots in at the back of the rotation nicely. That said, his walk rate is up to 9.7%. This was one part of Lynn’s game where he once thrived; in 2022, he walked less than 4% of batters. He is not allowing the hard contact he did in 2023, but since he has not pitched very deep into games lately, he could put further strain on the bullpen.
The Cardinals have been about average against right-handed pitching in June. They have a 100 wRC+, 6.4% walk rate and 21.6% strikeout rate. Funny enough, the Miami Marlins are one of the few teams that has walked less than the Cardinals with those same parameters in place. Among the active hitters on the St. Louis roster, only five have a .300+ xwOBA with more than 10 plate appearances facing righties in June. The bottom portion of their lineup has not pulled their weight.
In relief, the Cardinals have done relatively well in June with a 3.84 xFIP. They are walking 9% of batters, but only two arms are above the 4.00 xFIP mark currently in the bullpen. However, an early Lynn exit could reduce the gap between these two bullpens.
Miami Marlins
Muñoz has been getting some favorable results on the hill. His ERA is 4.56, but his xERA is over 6.00. Additionally, unlike Lynn, Muñoz gives up plenty of hard hits. That said, in two June starts, Muñoz’s xwOBA is .340 while Lynn’s is .321. These two are not too different when Lynn does not go past the fifth inning and when he continues to walk hitters at a similar rate.
The Marlins have been weak against righties in June, with a 4.2% walk rate, 27.2% strikeout rate and 63 wRC+. They have four bats above a .300 xwOBA, which is pretty even with the Cardinals. Again, like the Cardinals, the Marlins are weak at the bottom of the order. Neither team really walks much, so whichever starter does the most damage to their own pitch count will likely give an advantage to the opponent.
The Marlins have a weaker bullpen in June than the Cardinals do. They have a 4.40 xFIP with a sub-20% strikeout rate and similar walk rate. Muñoz has been able to make it through the fifth inning this month though, so if he can do so here, these bullpens could be pretty even later in the game.
Cardinals vs. Marlins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Take the Marlins as home underdogs. Neither of these teams are impressive, and backing Lynn to throw a decent, long start at this juncture makes no sense. Muñoz has some upside and can compete to hand the ball to the only effective relievers the Marlins have.
Take Miami to win this one to +110. Lynn is getting too much credit here.
Pick: Marlins ML (+130 via Caesars | Bet to +110)
