Cardinals vs. Mets Odds
| Cardinals Odds | +166 |
| Mets Odds | -198 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The day after splitting a doubleheader, the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals meet for the third of a four-game series on Wednesday at Citi Field.
The Mets did rally to tie the game late, but an infield single from Tyler O'Neil in the ninth inning sealed the deal for the Cardinals. New York stranded Dom Smith on second base with one out the following half inning.
It will be 37-year-old Max Scherzer taking the mound against the Cardinals. He threw seven scoreless, while striking out 10 the first time he played St. Louis, which turns to reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks.
Can the Cardinals win back-to-back games behind their young arm or will Scherzer and the Mets play spoiler as heavy home favorites?
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have been stretching out Jordan Hicks in 2022 and his numbers have taken an obvious step back with the increased workload.
Opponents have a .242 xBA against the 25-year-old, which grades around average when compared to other pitchers. He isn't generating a ton of swings outside of the zone, but for the most part has limited hard contact and been able to keep a strikeout rate above 20 percent.
But Hicks' biggest issue — as has been the case all career — is control. He is walking 4.98 batters per nine.
While Hicks xERA (4.65) sits a half-run higher than his actual ERA (4.15), his xFIP is actually a bit lower at 4.11. He's still a work in progress as going from the bullpen to the rotation is a strain on anyone, but Hicks does have the skillset to put together strong outings on a night to night basis.
And when he's taken out, the Cardinals bullpen has been elite all season long. They rank sixth in team ERA (3.22). Hicks hasn't pitched past the fifth inning once — last start was his longest — so the Cardinals should be busy in this low-scoring affair.
It's also important to note that the Cardinals tear lefties (.274/.352/.483), but they struggle against right-handed pitching (.239/.311/367). Tyler O'Neil, for example, has yet to get going in 2022 and hits just .165 against righties.
New York Mets
After a couple shaky outings against the Philadelphia Phillies, Max Scherzer responded with a dominant seven-inning, one run performance against the Seattle Mariners.
Scherzer has provided stability all season atop the Mets rotation without Jacob deGrom and as expected, grades out well in nearly every advanced metric of the game.
His strikeout rate remains above 30 percent and — aligning with the offensive woes throughout MLB — has a career-best hard-hit percentage of just 28.
Not much has changed for Scherzer, who, despite a slight velocity dip from last season, is still generating plenty of swings and misses and has held opponents to just a ..207 xBA.
The 37-year-old consistently pitches deep into games and his xERA (2.83) and xFIP (2.98) are not much higher than his actual ERA (2.66). What you see is what you get with the veteran, and it's elite-level stuff.
The Mets bullpen is also 11th in ERA, but that doesn't speak to the dominant arms at the backend. Edwin Diaz and Drew Smith both have given up just three runs over 16 innings apiece, and Seth Lugo has given up runs in just one of his last 10 outings.
Smith may be given the day off after back-to-back relief appearances, but Diaz and Lugo both only pitched in the first game of the Tuesday doubleheader.
Cardinals-Mets Pick
To me, there's little value in taking a side for tonight's matchup. The Mets are heavily favored for good reason and have the clear advantage on the mound and at the plate.
Hicks has yet to prove to me that he's reliable enough to back as an underdog and has yet to deliver a scoreless outing since April 17 when he threw just two innings.
Meanwhile, Scherzer has been dominant as always and I don't see the Cardinals having many answers for him. He pitches deep into games and shut down St. Louis' bats just one month ago.
However, I do think the under has value in this matchup. Hicks will have a relatively short leash, and the Cardinals bullpen is trustworthy enough to keep the game close.
This game projects as a low-scoring Mets win and even if the Cardinals pull off the upset, I can't see this being a high-scoring performance on either side.
Take the under in this matchup as Scherzer delivers another sparkling start.
Pick: Total Under 7 (Play to -120)
