Cardinals vs. Reds Odds
| Cardinals Odds | -135 |
| Reds Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the first contest of a three-game NL Central intradivisional series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds. Will the Reds put an end to their losing streak as they return home from a long road trip? Or can the Cardinals take care of business as road favorites?
Note: This article was written before the Cardinals' game against the Miami Marlins on Thursday, so all stats mentioned are from before that matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals enter this contest following a successful road trip to Miami, though it is worth noting that they head to Cincinnati on little rest following their immediate travel from Miami after the conclusion of Thursday night's game against the Marlins.
Left-hander Steven Matz is the projected starting pitcher and has gotten off to a tough start this season. Over his first two starts, Matz is 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.500 WHIP.
His metrics do not suggest any positive regression coming soon as Matz possesses a .318 xBA through those first two starts. Matz may not get much run support in this contest, either, as the Cardinals are projected to go against right-hander Hunter Greene.
Not a single player on the Cardinals' current roster has hit against Greene before, so it could take a few innings for them to figure him out. Against right-handed pitchers on the road this season, the Cardinals rank just 19th in the league in BA, 23rd in SLG, 23rd in OPS and 23rd in wOBA.
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds enter this matchup following a much-needed day off on Thursday after losing nine straight games. Friday's matchup opens a six-game home stand for the Reds, who will look to get off to a hot start against a division opponent.
While Greene has not had a tremendous start to the season, his numbers are still better than Matz. And Greene's two games were both on the road against much tougher opponents, the Dodgers and Braves. Through those two starts, Greene is 1-1 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.065 WHIP. We could see some positive regression as well from Greene as he boasts a .269 xBA this season.
Greene should get plenty of run support in this matchup because, while it is a small sample size, this current Reds lineup has had great success against Matz.
Through 25 career plate appearances against Matz, this current Reds roster boasts a .409 BA, .682 SLG and .480 wOBA against him. Though another small sample size, they have hit well against left-handers in their only two home games this season when they went against the Guardians.
Cardinals-Reds Pick
With oddsmakers making the Cardinals such a short favorite against a Reds team that is just 2-11 and has lost nine straight games, St. Louis could be a trendy pick, which makes me like Cincinnati even more.
There is no doubt that St. Louis will have much more success than Cincinnati this season, because the Cardinals are the better team. However, this specific matchup highlights a lot of advantages for the Reds. With no off-day as the Cardinals make the quick turnaround from Miami to Cincinnati, the Reds should snap their losing streak and kick off the home stand on a high note.
Pick: Reds ML +115 | Bet to: +100
