The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks play the third game of their four-game series on Saturday, March 29. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Marquee Sports Network, Dbacks.TV and can be streamed on MLB.TV.
The Diamondbacks scored more runs than any other team in 2024, and have come flying out of the gates this season, putting up 14 runs in their first two matchups. The D-backs' high-powered offense will face a tough test Saturday evening when they face off against Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga. Brandon Pfaadt will start for Arizona in his first start after signing a five-year contract Friday.
Find my Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction and picks for Saturday night below. In addition, you can find a 3-leg same game parlay.
My Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Cubs vs Diamondbacks picks: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline -120
My Cubs vs. Diamondbacks best bet is Diamondbacks Moneyline -120. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8.5 -122o / 102u | +102 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 8.5 -122o / 102u | -122 |
Nick Martin's Cubs vs Diamondbacks Saturday Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: An Improved Lineup
Imanaga kicked off the season with a solid start on home soil versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing zero hits across four innings of work. However, he held an xFIP of 8.04 and an xERA of 4.42 in that outing and managed only two strikeouts while walking four batters.
He held a 3.39 xERA and 3.62 xFIP in his rookie campaign, and the consensus from all of the major projection systems is that Imanaga will finish with an ERA close to 3.65 this season.
The Cubs held a wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching in 2024, which ranked 14th in MLB. Their offense was more effective in the second half, as they enjoyed fielding a healthier lineup. The additions of Kyle Tucker and top prospect Matt Shaw should help power the offense to improved results.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: A Breakout Candidate at the Mound
Winning the NL West is already looking highly unlikely, but the Diamondbacks still look like a solid bet to make the playoffs at -115. Their offense will likely be comparably dominant as it was in 2024, but the starting rotation has the potential to produce significantly better results.
While the addition of Corbin Burnes is obviously the greatest reason why, Pfaadt has the potential to be one of baseball's most improved starters. Pfaadt had a Stuff+ rating of 102 and a Location+ rating of 107 last season, which illustrates his strong ability to locate his quality five-pitch mix.
While he finished with a disappointing 4.71 ERA, his xERA of 3.71 and xFIP of 3.58 suggest he was still a better-than-average starter. As he looks to put it all together in his third MLB season, there are a lot of arguments as to why Pfaadt is a major breakout candidate.
Based on their wRC+ of 119 versus left-handed pitching last season, the Diamondbacks will provide a tough matchup for Imanaga. Christian Walker is the only notable loss from the Diamondbacks 2024 lineup, but new first baseman Josh Naylor should be able to replicate his production somewhat effectively.
Corbin Carroll was a trendy bet in the NL MVP market entering the year, as the 24-year-old looks primed for a monster season after finding his stroke in the second half of 2024. Carroll slugged .568 in the second half of last season, with an OPS of .919.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
Until Pfaadt gives us reason to believe otherwise, he could be a starter worth targeting often in the betting market, based on how he appears to be valued in this matchup. While the Cubs lineup should be improved this season, they will likely still prove to be far less productive than the Diamondbacks.
If Pfaadt does prove to be a comparably effective starter to Imanaga this season, then a price of -120 to bet the D-backs in this matchup is a great price, and could be a number that would be much shorter further into the campaign.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline -120
Moneyline
As outlined, the Diamondbacks look to be the side holding more value on the run-line.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the D-backs to cover the spread at +160 is a playable option if you are looking for longer odds than the -120 offered on the moneyline and would yield a comparable expected value to betting the moneyline.
Over/Under
The total looks accurate, and I see no value either way.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Same-Game Parlay
- Brandon Pfaadt to Record the Win
- Pfaadt Under 2.5 Earned Runs
- Diamondbacks -1.5
Parlay Odds: +350
As outlined above, the Diamondbacks should have a decent chance of spotting Pfaadt some runs early in this matchup. If that is the case, Pfaadt should have a good chance of kicking off the season with a win, as he has the arsenal to dominate any lineup and appears to be undervalued entering the season. +350 looks like a solid price to back the combination of another lofty offensive output day from the D-backs coupled with a strong start from Pfaadt.
