Cristopher Sánchez has been an ace for the Philadelphia Phillies and a massive part of their success this year. He starts for the Phils on Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs.
He has kept the hard contact to a minimum and has one of the best ground-ball rates in baseball. He can also get some hitters to chase, even though he does not manufacture many strikeouts.
His opponent will be Javier Assad, who although he is a good luck merchant, he has kept the poor outings to a minimum. He does not allow too much hard contact, but walks can be an issue. Cubs vs Phillies odds have the Phillies as -178 favorites with the total hovering around 8.
That said, both bullpens have just enough to keep the scoring low, once both starters need to exit the game. My Cubs vs Phillies prediction all comes down to this pitching matchup — let's dive into it.
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction
- Cubs vs Phillies pick: Under 8.5 | Bet to 7.5
My Cubs vs Phillies best bet is on the under, where I see value at 8.5. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Phillies Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -105o / -115u | +164 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -105o / -115u | -198 |
Cubs vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| Javier Assad RHP | Stat | Cristopher Sánchez LHP |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L | 11-9 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.7 |
| 3.34/4.69 | ERA /xERA | 3.25/3.52 |
| 4.39/4.59 | FIP / xFIP | 2.95/3.18 |
| 1.37 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 9.9% | K-BB% | 14.5% |
| 43.1% | GB% | 58.1% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 99 | Location+ | 103 |
D.J. James' Cubs vs Phillies Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Assad has a 3.34 ERA and 4.69 xERA. He has an Average Exit Velocity of 89 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 47th percentile. His issue has been getting hitters to swing and miss, while he is walking nearly 10% of them. However, he has alluded bad outings and has only allowed more than three earned runs once since the All-Star break.
At the dish, the Cubs have a 94 wRC+, 5.6% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout rate off of lefties in the last month. Even if Sánchez is not striking hitters out, the contact in the air is not happening often.
Since the Cubs do not have a high ground-ball rate in the last month, Sánchez could cause them issues. The Cubs only have four bats with more than six plate appearances above a .310 xwOBA with the above parameters in place. The rest of this lineup has been subpar and will not suddenly pick it up in the last week of the season.
In relief, the Cubs have a 4.26 xFIP, 22.1% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate, so walks could be an issue in this game. On the other hand, they still have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, which should be enough when Assad has shown he can pitch past the fifth inning.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Sánchez has a 3.25 ERA and 3.52 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 88 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 80th percentile. His Barrel Rate is above average, and his chase rate is also elite. He is only walking 5.9% of batters, while striking out 20.4%, so he has displayed why he can be relied upon in postseason play.
At the dish against righties in the last month, Philly has a 112 wRC+, 7.9% walk rate and 25.2% strikeout rate. The Phillies have five active bats above a .320 xwOBA, so like the Cubs, the bottom of the order has not done much damage. As streaky as Assad could be, the Phils likely will not jump on him for many runs.
In relief, the Phils have a 3.95 xFIP, 23.1% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. They have five options under a 4.00 xFIP, so since Sánchez can throw deep into a game, the Phils will have options behind him.
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
This game should go under the total. Regression will eventually catch up to Assad if he cannot stop walking hitters, but he has had enough success to throw like he has in recent outings. Sánchez is elite, and both bullpens have the arms to back up these starters.
Since neither lineup has had much success against these types of starters lately, you can take the under in this one from 8.5 (play to 7.5). It could be a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 8.5 | Bet to 7.5
Cubs vs Phillies Betting Trends
- 88% of the bets and 82% of the money is on the Phillies to cover the spread (-1.5)
- 74% of the bets and 74% of the money is on the over (8.5)
Cubs Betting Trends
Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cubs are 42-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Cubs' last 5 games
Phillies Betting Trends
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Phillies' 79 last games at home
