The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs on April 29, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday; the game will be broadcast on Marquee Sports Network and SportsNet-PIT.
The Pirates are +120 moneyline underdogs in this game against the favored Cubs (-145). Chicago is the run-line favorite (-1.5), and the total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my Cubs vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, and expert picks.
My Cubs vs Pirates Prediction
- Cubs vs Pirates pick: Pirates ML (+120, BetMGM | Play to +110)
My Cubs vs Pirates best bet is on the Pirates moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Pirates Game Information & Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8.5 -102 / -118 | -145 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 8.5 -102 / -118 | +120 |
Cubs vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.18 / 4.66 | ERA /xERA | 1.72 / 2.82 |
| 5.20 / 4.65 | FIP / xFIP | 2.25 / 3.08 |
| 1.09 | WHIP | 0.77 |
| 10.9% | K-BB% | 21.2% |
| 31.3% | GB% | 43% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 113 | Location+ | 99 |
Tony Sartori's Cubs vs Pirates Preview
Cubs Recent Betting Performance
Left-hander Shota Imanaga takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs in this matchup, and he should serve as a good sell-high candidate. Through six starts this season, Imanaga is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. The southpaw owns a 4.66 expected ERA (xERA).
Imanaga also ranks in the 24th percentile in average exit velocity, 35th percentile in strikeout rate and 23rd percentile in barrel rate. If Imanaga gets chased early, Chicago could be in trouble due to its poor bullpen.
This season, the Cubs’ relief staff ranks 28th in ERA, 22nd in fielding independent pitching (FIP), 28th in expected FIP (xFIP) and 22nd in wins above replacement (WAR).
Pirates Recent Betting Performance
The Pittsburgh Pirates boast the bullpen advantage in this matchup. Their relief staff outranks Chicago’s in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR.
Pittsburgh’s pitching advantage does not stop there, as left-hander Andrew Heaney gets the ball at home. Heaney has been dominant in 2025, posting a 2-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.77 WHIP through five starts.
The difference between Imanaga and Heaney is that the latter’s analytics suggest his dominance is likely to continue. Heaney ranks in the top third of the league in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That success is likely to continue against the Cubs. Through 47 combined plate appearances against Heaney, the current Chicago roster owns a mere .184 batting average.
Cubs vs Pirates Picks, Predictions, Betting Analysis
The clear hitting advantage goes to Chicago, which is why it is a -145 favorite in this matchup. That said, there is value to be had in Pittsburgh at +118.
Yes, the Cubs possess the stronger bats, but there are several variables favoring the Pirates. Pittsburgh features the stronger starting pitcher, a better bullpen and home-field advantage.
Chicago has lost two games in a row, and the Pirates are capable of making it three in this contest.
Pick: Pirates ML (+120, BetMGM | Play to +110)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting Pirates moneyline at +118.
My Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+120, BetMGM)
Run Line (Spread)
I like Pittsburgh to cover as well, but find more value in just taking the outright number.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don't want to fade Heaney against Chicago.
