The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates will face off on Tuesday night in the second games of a three-game set at PNC Park.
The Cubs have recently surged back to .500. They are 7-3 over their past 10 games and in second in the NL Central standings. Unfortunately, they are still 10 games behind the Brewers for the division lead and 5.5 games out of a wild-card spot, so they have quite a bit of ground to make up.
So, let's get to my Cubs vs. Pirates prediction.
Chicago is the favorite tonight on the road at -130 in a game with an over/under of 8 runs (-118/-102).
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Prediction
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +130 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -155 |
Cubs vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| Justin Steele | Stat | Jared Jones |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 5-6 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 3.07 / 2.75 | ERA /xERA | 3.56 / 3.75 |
| 3.18 / 3.61 | FIP / xFIP | 3.75 / 3.73 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 18.5% | K-BB% | 19.1% |
| 42.3% | GB% | 40.1% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 127 |
| 103 | Location+ | 103 |
Cody Goggin’s Cubs vs Pirates Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Bats Are Hot
Justin Steele will take the mound for Chicago today. The left-hander has a 3.07 ERA and 2.75 xERA over 123 IP this season. Steele has a Stuff+ of 100 and Location+ of 103. This has resulted in a 36th percentile whiff rate but 67th percentile strikeout rate and 76th percentile walk rate.
Steele has been great at avoiding hard contact. He ranks in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, the 93rd percentile in barrel rate allowed, and the 86th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He also ranks above average in ground-ball rate.
This season the Cubs rank 18th in wRC+, 17th in wOBA, 20th in SLG, and 18th in ISO. They've been hot at the plate for the last month, posting a top-10 wRC+ (114) and top-five SLG (.453).
Chicago strikes out at a league-average rate but has the sixth-best walk rate. They rank 20th in hard-hit rate, 12th in barrel rate, and 18th in exit velocity. The Cubs also have the fourth-best barrel rate across the past month.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Hitting The Ball Hard On The Ground
Jared Jones was having an impressive rookie campaign before landing on the IL with a lat strain on July 5th.
Today will be his first start back after making three minor league rehab starts, including striking out 10 over five one-hit scoreless innings at AAA last week.
Jones ranks in the 94th percentile among qualified pitchers in fastball velocity and boasts a 127 Stuff+ mark. He also ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and 76th percentile in walk rate while mostly avoiding free passes.
That said, he's struggled with pitching to contact. He ranks among the bottom 15% of qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed, hard-hit rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed while ranking similarly low in ground-ball rate.
Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 27th in wRC+ this season with a mark of just 86. The Pirates also rank just 28th in wOBA, 28th in SLG, 27th in OBP, and 27th in ISO. Over the past 30 days, they still have a wRC+ of 87 and rank 26th in ISO, so the lineup isn't improving.
The Pirates combine the fourth-highest ground-ball rate with the fourth-highest strikeout rate, but they also rank top-10 in barrel rate and average exit velocity. They hit the ball hard but get nothing in the air and strike out like crazy, hurting their overall productivity.
The Pirates have been better against lefties this season. They rank 20th in wRC+ and 18th in wOBA against Southpaws, which still isn’t great but is a marked improvement from where they are overall.
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
I think both of these starting pitchers are good.
Steele is having an impressive season, and while the Pirates are better against left-handers than righties, they still strike out often and hit the ball on the ground too much for me to like them in this matchup.
Jared Jones is talented, but this is his first outing back from injury. The Cubs' offense hasn’t been overly impressive overall, but they have been much better over the last month and are hitting their stride, especially from a power perspective.
I lean towards taking the Cubs in this matchup over the first five innings, as they have the better offense and likely the better starter. Jones may be better overall, but I don’t want to back him in his first game off the IL following a prolonged absence.
My best bet on this game is Chicago's moneyline over the first five innings. I believe this game will either be tied or the Cubs will have a lead by the time Jones exits.
Pick: Chicago Cubs F5 ML (-130) | Play to F5 ML (-145)
Moneyline
Chicago ranks eighth in bullpen ERA, while Pittsburgh ranks 22nd.
With Jones likely not going very deep into this game, I don’t want to be relying on Pittsburgh’s bullpen later in this game, either.
I like them more over the first five innings, but I would also take the Cubs on the full-game moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
The Pirates have smashed in Vegas this year, going 75-56 ATS. The Cubs are 65-67 ATS overall but 35-32 ATS on the road.
I don’t have a strong lean on the run line in this game either way. I like the Cubs overall, but laying multiple runs with them seems strong, as Jared Jones still is a good pitcher, and Chicago’s offense isn’t great enough for me to throw my full force behind them.
If I had to pick a side, I’d still stick with the Cubs -1.5 at +124, but I prefer sticking to the moneyline markets I mentioned.
Over/Under
Unders have been profitable for each of these teams this season. The under is 65-62-1 in Pirates games but 31-32-3 at PNC Park. Chicago unders are 33-30-4 on the road this year.
I don’t have a lean on the total of this game, as I can see both sides. There’s a scenario where these two pitchers shut down below-average opposing offenses and a scenario where the Pirates hit lefties well while Jones isn’t at 100% coming off the IL, and his home run issues come back against this Cubs offense.
I see both cases, but I won’t take a side on this total.
