Two of the National League's best clash today when the Chicago Cubs (12-8) and San Diego Padres (14-4) play their series finale at Petco Park. First pitch is set for Wednesday afternoon 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Marquee Sports Network and Padres.TV.
The Padres had their five-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday night as the Cubs triumphed in extra innings to knot up the series.
Continue below for my Cubs vs Padres prediction.
Cubs vs Padres Predictions
- Cubs vs Padres picks:Over 7.5 (-115| Play to -125)
My Cubs vs Padres best bet is the game total to go over 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Padres Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -105 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -115 |
Cubs vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 1.59 / 3.40 | ERA /xERA | 1.59 / 3.07 |
| 3.38 / 4.24 | FIP / xFIP | 2.38 / 2.98 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 0.82 |
| 14.1% | K-BB% | 21.5% |
| 31.1% | GB% | 41.9% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 93 | Location+ | 112 |
Cubs vs Padres Preview, Predictions
Cubs Betting Preview: Sell Boyd Now?
Left-hander Matthew Boyd takes the mound for the Cubs — he's someone I'm looking to sell high on.
Through three starts this season, Boyd boasts a 1.59 ERA and 3.38 FIP. He's logged two consecutive quality starts and is coming off a tough-luck loss to the Dodgers, an outing in which he threw six innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts.
While those are impressive numbers, his underlying metrics suggest regression is looming. Despite the strong results, Boyd owns a 3.40 expected ERA (xERA) and 4.24 expected FIP (xFIP).
There are a few other concerns with the left-hander as well. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the bottom half of the league in walk rate and ground-ball rate.
The good news for Boyd is that he should receive plenty of run support.
Chicago ranks in the top six in runs per game, hits per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Padres Betting Preview: Bad Spot for Pivetta
The Padres can match that offensive output. This season, they also rank in the top 10 in each of those same eight hitting categories mentioned above.
Another similarity between these two teams is that San Diego’s starting pitcher is also due for regression.
Through three starts, right-hander Nick Pivetta sports a 1.59 ERA and 2.38 FIP.
However, Pivetta owns a 3.07 xERA and 2.98 xFIP. While both pitchers have solid analytics, simultaneous regression could open the door for a high-scoring affair.
Furthermore, Pivetta has struggled against the Cubs. Over his past four starts against Chicago, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA.
Cubs vs Padres Prediction — Over/Under Pick
Two starting pitchers paired with two explosive offenses creates the perfect storm for a high-scoring game.
Additionally, Chicago’s bullpen is untrustworthy.
In 2025, the Cubs’ relief staff ranks in the bottom nine in ERA, FIP, xFIP and wins above replacement (WAR). That’s yet another variable that could help push this shallow total of 7.5 over the number — one that exists largely due to Boyd and Pivetta’s unsustainable results so far.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-120 | Play to -125)
Moneyline
I lean toward San Diego, but don't want to back Pivetta in a game where he's due for regression against a strong lineup.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like San Diego to cover, but am staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Over 7.5 at -120.
My Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
