The Baltimore Orioles (80-59) and Chicago White Sox (31-108) continue their three-game series on Tuesday night at Camden Yards. The O’s took the series opener, thumping the White Sox 13-3 to stay a half-game back of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East entering Tuesday.
Nick Nastrini, Chicago's probable starter for Tuesday, is a highly-rated prospect with some upside, but he's had a bit of a rocky road in the White Sox rotation, accruing pitches quickly and racking up walks in the process. He hasn't missed many bats and hasn't kept the ball on the ground despite not giving up much hard contact. The Orioles will counter with 24-year-old Cade Povich, who has taken his own big-league lumps but gets a potentially soft matchup against the White Sox.
Below, you can read my preview and find my White Sox vs Orioles prediction for Tuesday, September 3.
White Sox vs Orioles Prediction
- White Sox vs Orioles picks: Orioles Run Line -1.5 (-113 to -135)
My White Sox vs Orioles prediction is on the O's run line, where I see value at -113. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Orioles Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -106 | 9 -100o / -122u | +220 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -113 | 9 -100o / -122u | -270 |
White Sox vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Nastrini (CWS) | Stat | LHP Cade Povich (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | W-L | 1-7 |
| -0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 7.04/6.58 | ERA /xERA | 6.58/4.44 |
| 7.35/6.86 | FIP / xFIP | 5.67/5.85 |
| 1.73 | WHIP | 1.73 |
| -2.8% | K-BB% | 4.5% |
| 33.7% | GB% | 36.5% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 86 | Location+ | 96 |
D.J. James’ White Sox vs Orioles Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview: A Pitiful Showing at the Plate
Nastrini has a 7.04 ERA and a 6.58 xERA with an Average Exit Velocity of below 88 MPH. He also owns an above-average Hard-Hit Rate, but his strikeout rate is 15.3% against an abysmal 18.1% walk rate. He threw well in his last outing against the Texas Rangers and has limited experience in the bigs, but these walk issues could loom large against Baltimore.
The White Sox lineup — not the pitching staff — is the major reason this team has set a historic record for team losses, as of Sunday. The White Sox have hit lefties worse than righties, which sounds insane. They own a 46 ([) wRC+, 6.1% walk rate, and 24.1% strikeout rate in the last month off of southpaws. Only Andrew Vaughn has a .295+ xwOBA with those parameters in place. The rest of the lineup has glaring holes, which will not be fixed any time soon.
The White Sox relief staff has a 4.12 xFIP in the last month. Luckily, this isn't historically bad. They have an 11.4% walk rate and strikeout rate over 24%, so in this matchup, the Orioles should be pretty patient with the inaccurate arms throughout the Sox organization. They do have five arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, and Jairo Iriarte is a highly-touted prospect, so they'll have options when Nastrini leaves the mound early.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Bounce Back for Povich?
Povich has a 6.58 ERA and 4.44 xERA with an Average Exit Velocity of 88 MPH and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 79th percentile. His ground-ball rate is also below average. He's walking over 10% and not striking out more than 16% of batters, so both starters have similar issues. He can get his confidence back, seeing as the White Sox lineup has one viable hitter against lefties, though.
The Orioles hold a 96 wRC+, 7.7% walk rate, and 23.1% strikeout rate against righties in the last month. They have had their issues and injuries, but they still have a few bats with a .310+ xwOBA, including former White Sox player, Eloy Jiménez. The O’s have enough to take down Nastrini early in this game, which is all that matters here.
The Baltimore relief staff owns a 3.81 xFIP, 8.2% walk rate, and 25.9% strikeout rate in the last month with three under a 4.00 xFIP. This is worse than the White Sox, but Nastrini likely won't make it through as many hitters as Povich.
White Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Look for Baltimore to stand their ground at home and win this one. They should be even in the bullpen and better on the starting mound and in the batter’s box. Povich has had his struggles, but Nastrini has, too. Bet Baltimore from -1.5 (-113) to -1.5 (-135).
Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-113 to -135) via FanDuel
Moneyline
-270 (Pass)
Run Line (Spread)
-1.5 (Yes)
Over/Under
9 (Pass)
White Sox vs Orioles Betting Trends
- 92% of the bets and 99% of the money are on the Orioles on the moneyline.
- 92% of the bets and 89% of the money are on the over.
- 95% of the bets and 74% of the money are on the Orioles to cover the run line.
White Sox Betting Trends
- The White Sox have lost 10 games in a row.
- The White Sox are 2-7 in the last 10 games against the spread.
- The White Sox are 27-39 on the road against the spread.
- The Unders have hit in four of their past five games.
Orioles Betting Trends
- The Orioles are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
- The Orioles are 5-5 in their last 10 games against the spread.
- The Orioles are 36-33 at home against the spread.
- The Overs have hit in three of their past five games.
