The Boston Red Sox (12-11) and Chicago White Sox (5-16) wrap up their four-game series on Monday, April 21. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 11:10 a.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Red Sox saw their modest four-game winning streak end on Sunday; they try to get back on track with Walker Buehler on the hill. The White Sox give the ball to Jonathan Cannon as they eye a series split.
Below, you can find my preview for this Patriots' Day clash and my White Sox vs Red Sox prediction.
My White Sox vs Red Sox Prediction
- White Sox vs Red Sox pick:Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140)
My White Sox vs Red Sox best bet is Alex Bregman to go over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Red Sox Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +110 | 9 -115o / -105u | +220 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 9 -115o / -105u | -275 |
White Sox vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jonathan Cannon (CWS) | Stat | RHP Walker Buehler (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 4.42 / 3.93 | ERA /xERA | 5.23 / 4.50 |
| 5.31 / 4.93 | FIP / xFIP | 4.91 / 3.87 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 8.3% | K-BB% | 13.6 |
| 50% | GB% | 46.8% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 98 | Location+ | 94 |
Mike Ianniello’s White Sox vs Red Sox Preview
White Sox Betting Preview: Lifeless Bats
Jonathan Cannon has made four starts for Chicago this season — two of them have gone well, and two of them have been duds.
Cannon has a 4.42 ERA with a promising 3.93 xERA. He has tossed a pair of scoreless outings but is being held back by a six-run blowup in Cleveland.
The biggest issue for Cannon has been his control. He has issued 11 walks and has been leaving his cutter over the plate a little too often. Cannon is not a strikeout guy, but he uses his cutter, changeup, and sinker mix to generate ground balls.
Offensively, the White Sox lineup is a tough watch once again. Last year, they scored 50 runs fewer than any other team in the league and finished last in nearly every other offensive category.
A month into this season, they sit last in wOBA and wRC+. They are hitting just .198 as a team.
There wasn’t a single player on the South Side with a wRC+ above 105 last season or an OPS over .700. They are likely on their way to another season full of below-average hitters.
Catcher Matt Thaiss is the only player with an OPS over .700 and nobody has hit more than three home runs entering Monday.
Red Sox Betting Preview: Iffy Start for Buehler
Walker Buehler has experienced extreme highs and lows over the last few years.
He missed the entire 2023 season after having Tommy John surgery and then really had issues during the 2024 regular season. Buehler struggled to a 1-6 record with a 5.38 ERA for the Dodgers.
He looked much better during the Dodgers’ postseason run, recording the final out to close out Los Angeles’s championship win and earn his first career save.
There was hope he would carry that success into 2025 after he signed with the Red Sox in free agency. However, Buehler has a 5.23 ERA through four starts and continues to make mistakes over the plate. His velocity is down and he is no longer able to generate strikeouts the way he did before his injury.
Despite missing the playoffs last season, the Red Sox fielded a top-10 offense. They went out and added Alex Bregman to a talented young core.
While it looked like it might have disrupted the team’s chemistry early on, it appears they have figured things out. Boston ranks seventh in scoring and sits 12th in OPS.
Rafael Devers has turned things around after a brutal start, and behind him it has been a mix of veterans and young players getting it done.
Veterans Bregman and Trevor Story both have a wRC+ over 145 this season and young players like Wilyer Abreu and Kristian Campbell both have a wRC+ over 150.
White Sox vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Betting on the Chicago White Sox is not something I want to be part of, but I am also not comfortable laying north of -200 on a baseball game — especially given how bad Buehler looks.
If you want to take the over, I wouldn’t fault you, but it is always scary to rely on the White Sox to score runs.
Cannon has been hit or miss, and the Red Sox should be able to do some damage against him as he struggles to miss bats and has allowed too many barrels. Cannon has had issues with control and is allowing too many walks, which could allow things to snowball if he gets into trouble.
Behind Cannon is one of the league’s worst bullpens. Cannon has yet to finish six frames this year so even if he's able to limit the damage, Boston should be facing the White Sox bullpen for nearly half the game.
I am most confident in the Red Sox putting up runs and want to target one player in particular for a player prop.
Alex Bregman is hitting .292 with an .866 OPS to start the year; he has a .962 OPS over his last seven games.
Bregman has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers and has a positive run value against cutters, changeups, and sinkers, which are Cannon’s top three pitches. Bregman has only faced Cannon four times, but the former Astro is 2-for-4 in that limited sample.
Back Bregman and the Boston offense on Patriots' Day.
Pick: Alex Bregman over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140)
Moneyline
As I mentioned above, I'm not comfortable with the price on the Red Sox moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also passing on making any bets on the spread.
Over/Under
The White Sox have issues scoring, which makes me shy away from any bets on the total.
