The Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves will face off on Monday night in a makeup for a game originally scheduled for July 24.
Cincinnati is running out time on the season, as the Reds are 69-75 and 9.5 games out of the last wild-card spot. Atlanta (78-65) is likely out of the NL East race, but they are in a dogfight with the Mets for the last NL wild card spot, as the two division rivals are tied right now.
The Braves are -162 favorites on the moneyline in a game with a total set at 8.5 runs (-105/-115). Let’s dive into my Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves predictions and best bet for Monday September 9th.
Reds vs Braves Prediction
Reds-Braves Pick: Cincinnati Reds F5 Moneyline (+124 at FanDuel, bet to +115)
My Reds-Braves best bet is on Reds F5 Moneyline, where I see value at +124. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Braves Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +140 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -165 |
Reds vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| Nick Martinez (RHP) | Stat | Charlie Morton (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | W-L | 8-7 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.67 / 3.49 | ERA /xERA | 4.24 / 4.58 |
| 3.58 / 4.04 | FIP / xFIP | 4.54 / 3.96 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 15.4% |
| 37.3% | GB% | 46.1% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 109 | Location+ | 98 |
Cody Goggin's Reds vs Braves Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Martinez Limits Hard Contact
Taking the mound for the Reds tonight will be 34-year old Nick Martinez. Martinez has 38 appearances this year but just 12 starts, as he has mostly been used out of the bullpen. He has been starting regularly since August 5 and has posted a 3.72 ERA since. Overall on the season Martinez has a 3.67 ERA, 3.49 xERA and 3.58 FIP. He has been slightly worse as a starter, with a 4.42 FIP and 3.98 xFIP since August 5th.
Martinez has a whiff rate that ranks in the 30th percentile among qualified pitchers this season and a 24th percentile strikeout rate. He has found success in limiting walks and hard contact, as he has a 98th percentile walk rate, 85th percentile barrel rate, 96th percentile hard hit rate allowed and 91st percentile average exit velocity allowed.
Cincinnati’s offense has been a disappointment for much of the year. They rank 25th in wRC+ but 16th in wOBA, 11th in ISO and 17th in SLG. The Reds have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league but rank 13th in walk rate.
The Reds are 28th in hard hit rate, 21st in barrel rate and 29th in average exit velocity. They rank 17th in ground ball rate, 13th in fly ball rate and 12th in line drive rate, as they don’t have a strong trend in any direction in terms of the elevation of their batted balls.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Braves Average of Late
Charlie Morton will get the start for Atlanta tonight. The 40-year-old is still going strong in his 17th Major League season with a 4.24 ERA, 4.58 xERA and a 4.54 FIP. Morton has thrown 142-⅓ innings this year but does not often go very deep into games anymore at this point in his career.
Morton throws his curveball 42% of the time as it has a Stuff+ of 122, which is well above average. This is down from the range of 134-149 that he has been in over the last four years, however. This has caused his overall Stuff+ number to drop to 95, which is his first time under 105 since this metric started being tracked in 2020.
Morton has still been able to put up a strikeout rate that ranks in the 63rd percentile and a walk rate in the 31st percentile. The veteran has a hard hit rate that ranks in the 50th percentile but a 17th percentile barrel rate allowed. This dichotomy is interesting, as Morton has a 75th percentile ground ball rate, which usually would result in allowing less barrels than your hard contact rate, but his curveball usage gives him a unique profile.
Atlanta’s offense ranks 19th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA this season. The Braves' main weakness has been their plate discipline, as they strike out at the 8th-highest rate and rank 19th in walk rate. The Braves rank 12th in SLG, 20th in OBP and 8th in ISO. They are 15th in wRC+ in the last 30 days with a mark of 100, as they have been a league average offense as of late.
When the Braves do hit the ball, they hit it harder than anyone else in the league. Atlanta ranks 1st in hard hit rate, 2nd in barrel rate, and 2nd in average exit velocity. They rank 21st in ground ball rate, 11th in line drive rate, and 12th in fly ball rate.
Reds vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
Martinez has been more effective than Morton, but mostly out of the bullpen. However, I do think that Martinez has looked solid in his limited action in the rotation.
Martinez has been elite at limiting hard contact, which has been the best part of Atlanta’s offense this season. I think that Martinez will be able to keep Atlanta in check through the first half of this game.
On the other side, Morton is fine, but I’m not looking to back him at this point in his career. The Reds have a below average offense overall, but they are able to get on pace and have decent power numbers despite their poor batted ball metrics.
I think that this is a close matchup between these two teams and their starting pitchers, which I could see being a lower-scoring affair in the first five innings, as neither of these hurlers will go deep. I believe that, at +124, there is some value on the Reds on this F5 moneyline, as I like riding with Martinez in this matchup.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds F5 Moneyline (+124 at FanDuel, bet to +115)
Moneyline
The Braves are 40-30 straight up at home this season compared to 38-35 on the road. Cincinnati has played about the same both home and away, as they are three games under .500 in both scenarios.
While I like the Reds in the F5, I’m not jumping to take them on the full game moneyline. I believe this will be a bullpen-heavy back half of the game, as neither pitcher projects to go deep. The Braves rank third in bullpen ERA and first in bullpen xFIP this season, while Cincinnati is 14th in both.
Run Line (Spread)
The Braves are only 30-40 at home against the spread this year, compared to 36-37 on the road. Cincinnati has actually been a great bet on the road this year at 40-29 ATS.
With that said, I think the Braves being priced at +130 on the -1.5 run line does offer some value, as they have the better offense in this game and one of the better bullpens in the National League. There’s a possibility where the Braves get a multi-run lead and are able to hang on, especially if their bats come alive and neutralize Martinez’s strength in contact quality.
Over/Under
The Braves have been a great bet to the under this season, as they are 84-51-8 to the under, including 46-21-3 at home. Cincinnati is 69-67-8 to the under overall this season but 35-32 to the over on the road.
I would take the under in this game, as neither offense is above league average at this point and there are things to like about both starters. As mentioned above, both of these teams also have strong bullpens that could keep this game low-scoring. At 8.5, I wouldn’t be opposed to take an under here.
Reds vs Braves Betting Trends
- 84% of the bets and 82% of the money are on the Braves on the moneyline.
- 87% of the bets and 87% of the money are on the over.
- 79% of the bets and 82% of the money are on the Braves to cover the run line.
Reds Betting Trends
- The Braves are 40-30 straight up at home this season.
- The Braves are only 30-40 at home against the spread this year.
- Atlanta is 84-51-8 to the under this season, including 46-21-3 at home.
Braves Betting Trends
- The Reds are 40-29 against the spread on the road this season.
- Cincinnati has been 35-32 to the over on the road this year.
