Two teams not in the MLB postseason picture, the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs, open a three-game series on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network, Bally Sports Ohio and Marquee Sports Network. Find my Reds vs Cubs prediction and pick for September 27 below.
Editor's Note: This Reds-Cubs preview was published before Cincinnati announced Nick Martinez as its probable starting pitcher. The author still maintains his betting pick.
Reds vs Cubs Prediction
- Reds vs Cubs picks: Cubs run line -1.5 (+150 | Play to +100)
My Reds vs Cubs best bet is on Cubs -1.5, where I see value at +150. The best line is available at ESPNBet, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -215 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +170 |
- Reds-Cubs Moneyline: Reds +110 | Cubs -130
- Reds-Cubs Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Reds-Cubs Spread: Reds +1.5 (-215) | Cubs -1.5 (+170)
Reds vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Martinez (CIN) | Stat | RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | W-L | 11-8 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 3.22/3.13 | ERA /xERA | 3.41/3.89 |
| 3.26/3.89 | FIP / xFIP | 3.94/4.12 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 17.5% | K-BB% | 14.2% |
| 36.7% | GB% | 40.2% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 108 | Location+ | 107 |
Sean Paul’s Reds vs Cubs Preview
Cubs Betting Preview: Taillon Dangerous at Home
The Cubs will trot Jameson Taillon out to the mound for this Friday matinee.
Taillon is notoriously streaky, which has hindered him from becoming a rotational centerpiece. Whether it be the Pirates, Yankees or the Cubs, he's never been more than an innings-eater type. While there's nothing wrong with that, he's pretty much an expensive Kyle Gibson.
However, he's mostly tamed his streakiness this year, posting a 3.49 ERA with a 3.89 FIP. He's done a masterful job at keeping ducks on the pond, owning a 75.4 LOB% — up from 64.6% in 2023.
The one thing I love about Taillon? He knows his strengths, which is pitching to contact and throwing strikes. He owns a 6.99 K/9 and 1.76 BB/9.
Additionally, Taillon thrives in day games at Wrigley, posting a 2.34 ERA in 11 outings during the day paired with a similar 2.37 ERA in 14 home starts. Some players just perform better at home, but perhaps Taillon is a benefactor of the pitcher-friendly wind at Wrigley.
Though the Cubs had a very small sliver of playoff hopes remaining entering September, it quickly went by the wayside. It certainly wasn't because of their offense as they have posted a 112 wRC+ this month, ranking sixth in MLB, one spot ahead of the AL West-champion Astros and one behind the Padres.
It's been a joint effort for the Cubs' surging lineup, as seven hitters have a wRC+ better than the league average (100) this month. The most encouraging sign heading into next year is the highly paid duo of Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger performing to their contract. That was missing for much of the year.
Reds Betting Preview: Cincy Ready to Call it a Season
Whereas the Cubs continue playing each game like it's a playoff game, the Reds seem ready for a lengthy vacation. Not only did the Reds fire David Bell, but the team looks disinterested in playing competitive baseball.
The Reds offense has been a doormat in September, ranking 24th in baseball with an 80 wRC+ and a poor 25% K rate. In contrast to the Cubs lineup, just four Reds batters have a wRC+ better than 100.
Your guess is as good as mine for who pitches for the Reds in any of the final three games since they haven't announced any starter. It lines up for Hunter Greene to start. However, I'm not sure the Reds want to push Greene on regular rest in an inconsequential game fresh off an injury.
That likely means we'll see a bullpen game — or two — during this series, and that's music to the ears of Cubs fans — and bettors.
The thing about the Reds not announcing a starter for Friday's game is that it doesn't affect my bet here. I'm all on the Cubs regardless of who is pitching for Cincinnati.
Reds vs Cubs Prediction & Spread Betting Analysis
I love Taillon in this spot. He thrives in day games at Wrigley, and their offense is performing at a high level right now. The Cubs are the better team, and grabbing them at +145 value on the run line feels like tremendous value.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 +150
Moneyline
The current line sits at -150 for the Cubs moneyline. If that holds, it's definitely worth grabbing, but I wouldn't take it past -180 since the value drains from there.
Lean: Cubs moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
The run line is my favorite play for the game.
Over/Under
The total is fairly light at 6.5 runs as the wind is aggressively blowing in at 18.3 mph. Wrigley is so different with how much wind can alter a game, so I'll grab the under on 6.5 runs here. There won't be a ton of runs scored via extra bases hits. We'll likely see most runs being manufactured from small ball.
Reds vs Cubs Betting Trends
Reds Betting Trends
- The Reds are 4-6 in their last 10 games
- The Reds are 41-49 as underdogs
- The Reds are 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games
- The Reds are 73-78-8 favoring the under this year
CubsBetting Trends
- The Cubs are 5-5 in their last 10 games
- The Cubs are 42-36 at home
- The Cubs are 4-6 against the spread in their last ten games
- The Cubs are 34-43-1 to the under at home
