The Cincinnati Reds (62-67) and Pittsburgh Pirates (61-67) finish their four-game series on Sunday afternoon at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET on Bally Sports Ohio and SportsNet Pittsburgh.
These are the bottom two teams in the National League Central, but this should still be a fun game between two young, future-oriented teams.
The Reds will start Carson Spiers and Luis Ortiz will take the hill for the Pirates, so let's get to my Reds vs. Pirates prediction.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-111 | 8.5 -110/-110 | -1.5 +150 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-100 | 8.5 -110/-110 | +1.5 -179 |
Reds vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| Carson Spiers | Stat | Luis Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 5.43 /4.37 | ERA /xERA | 3.56 / 4.19 |
| 4.85 / 4.30 | FIP / xFIP | 4.27 / 4.70 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 15.2% | K-BB% | 11.3% |
| 38.7% | GB% | 39.0% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 104 | Location+ | 101 |
Justin Perri's Reds vs Pirates Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Spiers Looks To Bounce Back
It wasn't a pleasant experience for Spiers in his recent outing against the Toronto Blue Jays. He let up 10 runs (nine earned) on 13 hits in just 4 1/3 innings. To say he's looking to turn it around is an understatement.
The Reds' bats will hope to keep the momentum going from Saturday, when they scored 10 runs on their NL Central foe, including two separate innings where they plated four runs.
Cincinnati is technically the favorite, with their consensus run line set at -1.5, but there is some disagreement from the books. Why is this interesting? The Reds have the best record as away favorites (12-4), but are just 19-29 as road 'dogs.
Thus, if we say Vegas has done well setting its prices on Cincinnati this season, it's fair to say this should be a tightly contested game.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Can Ortiz Return To Mid-Season Form?
Pittsburgh is looking for the Ortiz who allowed more than one run just once in his first seven "starts." Starts is in quotes because he entered after an opener for his first three non-relief appearances this season.
Nonetheless, the story has changed since the end of July. Since that blistering run, Ortiz has allowed two or more runs in each of his past five appearances and has a 6.26 ERA over that span.
The expected stats behind Ortiz's recent performance aren't forgiving. One would hope a bad run would be met with a better xERA, such that you could feel confident about the underlaying pitch quality, but for Pittsburgh's starter, that's not the case. His xERA over those past five starts is actually worse — 6.90.
Since July 27th, Ortiz has seen his Ideal Contact Rate allowed jump from 32.5% to 38.1% and his K-Rate fall from 19.6% to 16.5%.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
The money line opened with the Pirates as slight favorites, around -115. However, after a few hours of action, this contest shifted to a pick'em with a -110 price on either side.
The total has fallen from 9 to 8.5, with juice to the over. Both teams have a strong track record of low-scoring games when playing divisional foes, so that could be a part of the move.
With such a tightly priced contest, this game will likely have opportunities for shopping to find the best price, regardless of which bet type you play.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
The Reds taking money against Ortiz is likely the right move. Cincinnati is seeking to even the series on the heels of a momentum-building win. The Reds also have the advantage of being able to empty their bullpen to get the job done, as they have an off day Monday.
Run Line (Spread)
With almost a pick'em line, you'll be able to find options to bet the run line in either direction. The Pirates are an exceptional ATS team as an underdog with a 51-26 record. That said, these teams don't often settle their contests by just one run, so I'd lean toward laying the -1.5 with whichever side you think will win this game, which, for me, is the Reds.
Over/Under
