Over the weekend, the Reds were swept by the Royals at home. On Monday night, they will look to end their losing in Toronto as they take on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays. Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario are a pair of hitters that may get the offense going.
The Blue Jays dropped their series in Chicago but were able to take the series finale yesterday. Tonight, they will look to extend their streak to two games with Kevin Gausman getting the ball.
Read on for my three-leg same-game parlay.
Alex Hinton's Reds vs Blue Jays MLB Parlay Picks for Monday
- Kevin Gausman 5+ Strikeouts (-280)
- Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
- Jeimer Candelario Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Parlay Odds: +575 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Kevin Gausman 5+ Strikeouts (-280)
After three consecutive seasons of 200 strikeouts or more, it may be a stretch to expect Kevin Gausman to get there this season with 126 in 139 1/3 innings. Still, Gausman has worked deep into games, pitching into the seventh inning in five of his last six starts and six innings in eight of his last 10 starts. That has helped him record five strikeouts or more in six of his last 10 starts and 15 of 24 this season.
Tonight, Gausman will face a Reds lineup that ranks fourth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Four hitters in their lineup have a 24% strikeout rate or higher. That list does not include Jonathan India, who is 0-for-4 with two strikeouts against Gausman. Additionally, seven of the last nine starters that the Reds have faced have recorded five strikeouts or more.
Gausman had 10 strikeouts in a great matchup against Seattle. In another great spot tonight, five is not out of the question in six or seven innings.
Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Elly De La Cruz is one of the most electric players in the MLB, but at this stage of his career, he can sometimes be an all-or-nothing player. For example, De La Cruz has 16 hits this month, but 13 of them have come in four games and he is hitting .242 this month. De La Cruz went 1-for-11 over the weekend as the Reds were swept by the Royals. However, tonight's matchup will give him a chance to break that slump.
Despite playing his home games at Great American Ballpark, De La Cruz is a slightly better hitter on the road. At home, De La Cruz hits .250 with 27 extra-base hits and a .804 OPS. Comparatively, he is hitting .268 with 29 extra-base hits and a .848 OPS in road games. He is hitting .281 with a .903 OPS against right-handed pitchers compared to .214 with a .670 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Additionally, he is hitting .282 at night compared to .222 in day games.
Well, De La Cruz gets a right-handed starter on the road in a game with a 7 PM first pitch.. Additionally, Gausman allows a .269 opposing batting average as well as 22 doubles, a triple, and eight home runs to left-handed hitters. Gausman may strike him out once, but a double from De La Cruz gets us two total bases. Additionally, if he does have one of his breakout games, you can back him for two hits at +270 and three hits at +1100 on DraftKings.
Jeimer Candelario Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Another Reds' switch-hitter who may find success against Gausman is Jeimer Candelario, but the difference is we have already seen it. Candelario is 3-for-5 with a walk and a solo home run against Gausman. He has 20 home runs this season and 17 of them have come against right-handed pitchers. He also has 15 doubles and two triples against them and his OPS is 88 points higher against right-handers compared to lefties.
Candelario has a hit in 10 of his last 15 games. In that span, he has a double and three home runs with a pair of the home runs coming in the last week. In that span, he also has three multi-hit games. Whether it's via an extra base hit or two singles, I like Candelario to take advantage of his matchup with Gausman tonight.
