After stealing home-field advantage, the Detroit Tigers are set to host the Cleveland Guardians for Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday afternoon at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS, truTV and Max.
If pitching, defense and clutch plays are what you like, then Game 2 was for you. The Tigers tied the series at 1-1 thanks to Kerry Carpenter’s clutch three-run bomb in the ninth inning off the best closer in baseball, Emmanuel Clase.
Moving on to Game 3, the Guardians are starting right-hander Alex Cobb, who's been limited this year due to a number of injuries. As for the Tigers, well … it looks like "pitching chaos" is on tap with no starter/opener announced as of Tuesday night.
I try to parse out this crucial Game 3 and offer my Guardians vs Tigers prediction for Wednesday, Oct. 9, below.
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction
- Guardians vs Tigers pick: Tigers Moneyline (-104 | Play to -125)
My Guardians vs Tigers best bet for ALDS Game 3 is on the Tigers moneyline, where I see value at -104. The best line is available at FanDuel, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Tigers Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 7 -112o / -108u | -1.5 +150 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 7 -112o / -108u | +1.5 -180 |
Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Alex Cobb (CLE) | Stat | TBD (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 (3 starts; 16 1/3 innings) | W-L | — |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| 2.76 / 4.87 | ERA /xERA | — |
| 3.29 / 3.70 | FIP / xFIP | — |
| 1.04 | WHIP | — |
| 11.3% | K-BB% | — |
| 61.2% | GB% | — |
| 107 | Stuff+ | — |
| 105 | Location+ | — |
D.J. James’ Guardians vs Tigers Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: What Can Alex Cobb Provide?
Alex Cobb has a 2.75 ERA and 4.87 xERA in three starts this season. The veteran right-hander was hampered by injuries during the regular season, undergoing left hip surgery, fracturing a nail on his right hand and then dealing with a blister.
Cobb has an Average Exit Velocity over 91 mph and a subpar Hard-Hit Rate, though he manages to keep the ball on the ground over 61% of the time.
He rarely walks hitters, but his strikeout rate of 16.1% is abysmal. The Tigers had one of the lowest ground-ball rates in baseball this year, so they should negate what is typically an edge for Cobb.
The Guardians are probably going to face a slew of pitchers on Wednesday. They had a 100 wRC+ against both righties and lefties in September, with an 8.7% walk rate and 22.8% strikeout rate. They have five bats on the playoff roster who held a .320+ xwOBA, so the bottom of the lineup usually does not do as much damage.
In relief, the Guardians had a 3.50 xFIP, 6.3% walk rate and strikeout rate above 28%.
The story entering Game 3 is that Emmanuel Clase only yielded five earned during the regular season but gave up three in one swing to Kerry Carpenter.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Pitching Chaos in Game 3?
At the time of writing, the Tigers have not announced who will be starting/opening Game 3 for them. According to Tigers beat writer Jason Beck, every pitcher they have who isn't Tarik Skubal or Reese Olson is available to pitch.
With that in mind, I'll broadly touch on the Detroit's pitching staff as a whole.
The Tigers had a September xFIP of 3.72 in relief; they had a 6.1% walk rate and a strikeout rate of 21.9%. Tyler Holton has been used as an opener quite frequently and he could see some action in this one.
The lefty has a 2.19 ERA and 2.75 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 87 mph and he has an excellent Hard-Hit Rate, ground-ball rate, barrel rate and walk rate.
Assuming Holton opens, Detroit could go any number of ways. Manager A.J. Hinch could go to Jackson Jobe, though he might not want to after Jobe's awful appearance in the Wild Card Series. The rest of this bullpen, however, has been nearly lockdown. They may not produce many strikeouts, but they limit free passes.
At the dish, the Tigers had a 107 wRC+, 9.8% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate against righties in September. They have several bats on the playoff roster who have an xwOBA above .320.
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Given that the Tigers have been better at the plate, they should have an edge both at home and against a starter in Cobb who is due for a little negative regression.
Cobb is decent and can keep the ball on the ground, but the Tigers could have the antidote for that with a fly-ball heavy approach.
I'm betting the Tigers in Game 3 from -104 to -125.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -104 to -125
Moneyline
As I mentioned above, I'm on the Tigers moneyline.
Pick: Tigers ML
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play for either side of the run line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
Like the run line, I'm staying away from the total.
Pick: Pass
Guardians Betting Trends
- Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
Tigers Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Tigers' 81 last games at home
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers' last 5 games
Guardians vs Tigers Weather
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