Guardians vs Tigers Game 4 Predictions, Picks, Odds

Down 2-1 in the ALDS, the Cleveland Guardians are on the brink of elimination — they take on the Detroit Tigers for Game 4 at Comerica Park on Thursday night. First pitch is set for 6:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TNT and Max, with other options that include MLB.TV and YouTube TV.

The Tigers utilized a bullpen day on Wednesday, but they are taking a more traditional approach on Thursday by letting right-hander Reese Olson make a tradition start. The Guardians will start Tanner Bibee, who has been reliable and racked up nearly 200 strikeouts this season.

Guardians vs Tigers odds (via Caesars Sportsbook) have the Guardians as -130 moneyline favorites and Tigers as +110 underdogs. The over/under is a consensus total of 6.5 runs (-115o / -105u). The Guardians are +140 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Tigers are -165 (+1.5).

The stage is set, so let's get to my Guardians vs Tigers Game 4 predictions, picks, odds for Thursday, October 10.

My Guardians vs Tigers Prediction for Game 4

• Guardians vs Tigers pick: Guardians Moneyline (-115) | Play to -135

My Tigers vs Guardians best bet is on the Guardians moneyline, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Thursday, Oct. 10

6:08 p.m. ET

TNT, Max

Guardians Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
-130	6.5 -115o / -105u	-1.5 +140

Tigers Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
+110	6.5 -115o / -105u	+1.5 -165

Odds via DraftKings . Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Guardians vs Tigers Moneyline: Guardians -130, Tigers +110
• Guardians vs Tigers Total: Over/Under 6.5 runs (-110o / -110u)
• Guardians vs Tigers Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+140), Tigers +1.5 (-165)

Guardians vs Tigers Previews, Game 4 Lineups, Prediction

The Guardians' season is on the line — can Tanner Bibee force a decisive Game 5, or will Reese Olson and the Tigers book their first trip to the ALCS since 2013?

Guardians Betting Preview & Lineup

Guardians Game 4 Lineup

1. Steven Kwan (LF)
2. Kyle Manzardo (DH)
3. Jose Ramirez (3B)
4. Josh Naylor (1B)
5. Lane Thomas (CF)
6. Will Brennan (RF)
7. Andres Gimenez (2B)
8. Bo Naylor (C)
9. Brayan Rocchio (SS)

Bibee owned a 3.47 ERA and a 3.80 xERA in the regular season. His Average Exit Velocity was a touch above 88 mph and he had an above average Hard-Hit Rate. He strikes out more than 26% of the batters he faces and walks under 7%, so he has been effective, even with a ground-ball rate in the 10th percentile. He held the Tigers to four hits and no earned runs over 4 2/3 innings on Saturday and I expect a similar outing, unless he allows too many fly balls.

The Guardians had a 90 wRC+ in September with a 6.9% walk rate and a 23% strikeout rate. They have six bats above a .300 xwOBA, but this isn't necessarily a deep lineup. However, the top of the order can do damage and make contact against Detroit's opener and bullpen Cleveland has seen often.

In relief, the Guardians held a 3.50 xFIP with a 6.3% walk rate and a 28.1% strikeout rate in September. Yes, Emmanuel Clase had some trouble with Kerry Carpenter and company, but he only allowed five earned runs all regular season. Cleveland also has several other options, especially if Bibee can notch more than four or five innings.

Tigers Betting Preview & Lineup

Tigers Game 4 Lineup

1. Parker Meadows (CF)
2. Kerry Carpenter (DH)
3. Matt Vierling (RF)
4. Riley Greene (LF)
5. Colt Keith (2B)
6. Spencer Torkelson (1B)
7. Zach McKinstry (3B)
8. Trey Sweeney (SS)
9. Jake Rogers (C)

Pitching chaos takes a backseat for Detroit with Olson getting the nod.

Olson delivered five innings of one-run ball in Game 1, so he's more than capable of giving the Tigers some length. The right-hander was more than respectable during the regular season, posting a 3.51 xERA and 3.72 xFIP. He was in the 85th percentile or better in terms of chase%, whiff%, barrel % and GB%.

Other Tigers arms we could see in Game 4 include Keider Montero and Tyler Holton.

Montero very well could be on the bump again Thursday after throwing just six pitch as the opener in Game 3. He had a 4.76 ERA and a 5.10 xERA in the regular season. He allows plenty of contact, so this could end up being a poor matchup with Cleveland.

Holton could see some action after Brant Hurter logged some heavy work on Wednesday. He posted a 2.19 ERA and a 2.75 xERA during the regular season.

His Average Exit Velocity, Hard-Hit Rate and ground-ball rate were well above average. He can also log more than one inning, if necessary. Detroit’s bullpen had a 3.72 xFIP in relief in September, but is lacking in the strikeout department.

The Tigers held a 107 wRC+, a 9.8% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate in September. They have multiple hitters who are effective against righties and held xwOBAs over .300, but Bibee will miss some bats.

Guardians vs Tigers Moneyline Prediction & Betting Analysis

Bibee is the better option and can throw deeper into a game. The Guardians have seen the Tigers' bullpen often and with Detroit seemingly unable to hand the ball to Hurter, Skubal or Olson, Detroit's 'pen could be in a tough spot.

Cleveland has solid bats at the top of the order and its bullpen can close the door. Bet Cleveland from -115 to -135.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-115) | Play to -135

Moneyline

I'm betting the Guardians moneyline in this ALDS matchup.

Pick: Guardians moneyline

Run Line (Spread)

I'm passing on the Guardians vs. Tigers run line.

Pick: Pass

Over/Under

I won't be betting the Guardians vs. Tigers over/under.

Pick: Pass

Guardians Trends

• Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games

Tigers Trends

• The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Tigers' 81 last games at home
• The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Tigers' last 5 games