The Cleveland Guardians (80-59) and Kansas City Royals (75-65) finish their three-game series on Wednesday at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
These are two of the top three teams in the American League Central, and just last Tuesday, the Royals had surpassed the Guardians in the standings before losing six straight. That adds a bit of extra importance as Kansas City looks to stop the skid and maintain their lead in the wild-card race.
Cleveland is only a half-game behind the Orioles for the best record in the American League and the first seed if the season was to end today.
In this Wednesday matchup, Ben Lively takes the mound for the Guardians as the Royals turn to Seth Lugo.
Let's get into the latest MLB odds, including a Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals prediction and pick.
Guardians vs Royals Prediction
- Guardians vs Royals pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-110 | Play to -125)
My Guardians-Royals best bet and prediction is on the first five innings total to go over 4.5 runs, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at BetMGM, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Royals Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -190 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +155 |
Guardians vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| Ben Lively (CLE) | Stat | Seth Lugo (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-8 | W-L | 14-8 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.8 |
| 3.92 / 4.03 | ERA /xERA | 3.12 / 3.92 |
| 4.81 / 4.57 | FIP / xFIP | 3.43 / 3.91 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 13.8% |
| 41.0% | GB% | 44.4% |
| 68 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 103 | Location+ | 100 |
Justin Perri's Guardians vs Royals Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Sweep Your Problems Away
It was only a week ago when the Guardians made headlines for falling out of first place in the AL Central. The Royals had won three of the first four games in Cleveland and surpassed the Guardians on the standings sheet.
Since then, though, there's been a drastic change of course, they've won four of their last five games while the Royals have floundered.
Much of the momentum swing has come behind the bat of Josh Naylor. In the last week, the first baseman is hitting a robust 12-for-25 with four doubles, a home run, eight runs batted in and a stolen base. The 1.260 OPS stretch for Naylor has included a base hit in each of his last six contests. If the Guardians want to complete the sweep today, his hot play will continue to be the cornerstone.
There will be a need for the Guardians to get the scoring going because if recent history tells us anything, it's that Cleveland's starter for today will be giving up some runs. That starter is Ben Lively, and he has not made a start without an earned run since early June. Since then, he has allowed two or more runs in all but one start. So, if you trust the current form of Lively, chalk the Royals up for at least two early-game runs.
It's not a pessimistic view of the 32-year-old righty. His Stuff+ is rated at 68, or 32% below the MLB average. That is seriously sub-par. His fastball velocity ranks 192nd in the league, and his swinging strike rate ranks 185th. He has a higher-than-normal mistake rate, and his arsenal of pitches fails to do damage because his decent peripherals struggle to complement weak four-seam and sinker fastballs.
The Guardians are still so effective that he's 11-8 this season, though, so that should tell you a bit about how predictive win-loss records are for pitchers as well as the strength of this Cleveland team. Lively's fWAR is much more telling at 0.6 and there should be some concerns here for the Guardians. Their offense will need to step up and give Lively support for them to win tonight.
Cleveland has been competitive on the road this season, going 37-34 on the money line away from home.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview: Lugo Tasked With Stopping Skid
Everything was going so well for Kansas City, but a few tough series against the Houston Astros and this Guardians team have left them with seven losses in seven days slide.
They have not had a rest day since August 22nd and have played a doubleheader in that time as well. Fatigue may very well be setting in, and it is safe to assume they are looking forward to tomorrow's rest day before hosting the Twins in another big AL Central clash this weekend.
The Royals' streak needs to stop at seven. Each additional loss will only cement the infamy of this stretch. The division title was finally theirs to lose, and immediately the team couldn't win again for a full Tuesday to Tuesday week. It's a tragic turn of events. They're lucky the American League wild-card gap is so large, but if they can't right the ship, even that 4.5-game gap will start to shrink.
Kansas City turns to Seth Lugo to calm the Cleveland bats and salvage the final game of this three-game set. It's the final game of the season between these teams and Lugo has faced this division foe twice. He gave up five runs to them in Cleveland and then threw six innings of shutout ball, striking out ten, when they met at home a few weeks later.
Both of those starts were back in June, and Lugo has been up and down equally since then. He looked great in his last start and has done well against weaker teams like the Angels, Tigers, White Sox and Marlins recently, but tougher squads such as the Red Sox, Twins and Cubs have all put up big spots against him.
The Guardians are an offense that is safe to categorize as tougher, so there are doubts that Lugo can shut them down entirely. He does throw a nine-pitch mix, so maybe he can locate them well enough to confuse the Guardians hitters. But with Kauffman being a plus-hitting environment and the Guardian's skill in making contact, there's a fair chance it could be another tough day for Kansas City.
Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
There has been a bit of movement in this game since the opening lines were set yesterday. The current widely available price is +115 but there were +125 lines available early on. There are concerns about the Kansas City lineup without Vinnie Pasquantino, who suffered a fractured thumb and might undergo surgery.
Cleveland didn't use star closer Emmanuel Clase in Tuesday's 7-1 victory, so they will have that advantage in their back pocket as they look to finish the season series with a strong statement.
I don't trust either starting pitcher, and both offenses have the potential to capitalize on mistakes or lack of quality early in this game. Lively has shown to consistently give up runs, but not too many that games are blown open, giving his side a chance to still win. Still, Lugo has struggled against stronger teams recently and while there's certainly a chance he could dominate Cleveland as he did last time at home, predicating our expectations on that alone isn't wise.
The best play for the price is betting on there to be runs early in this game. The better side of the distribution for both of these starters is one or two runs allowed. The worse side is three-to-five runs allowed each. There are real chances that one team could hit this alone, or that a 4-1 result after five innings gets us home.
With this bet, you do not have to figure out which team will win or pinpoint which of these two starters will be better. There is value in both of these teams scoring early in Kansas City tonight.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 ( -110, BetMGM) Play to 4.5 (-125)
- Bet Guardians vs Royals with the latest BetMGM bonus code.
Moneyline
Cleveland has won four of their last five games, but only six of their last ten. They are notably better at home this season with a 43-25 record at Progressive Field compared to a more average 37-34 record when traveling.
Kansas City is 41-30 at home and also 42-24 when made the betting favorite. Tonight's line isn't the most confident at -134, but this is a back-against-the-wall type of game where most of the media will be bringing out the "must-win" phrasing. Every game is a must-win, but in the structure of the MLB season, the Royals will be looking to avoid a series sweep on a get-away day if they can avoid it. I'd lean with Kansas City today.
Run Line (Spread)
There's a strong expectation in the market that this game will be close, so as usual that means plus money on the Royals if you think they can win by multiple runs, as well as a steep -184 price on the Guardians +1.5.
If the Royals manage to take a multi-run lead into the late innings, there likely won't be serious resistance from the Guardians. What that might look like would be using some of the low leverage bullpen arms who are more prone to giving up runs. Cleveland has largely done what they came to do this week, they've emphatically taken back the lead in the division and watched the Royals fall.
My expectation is that this is a spot where Kansas City gets one back and does so with a few extra runs on the board to try to go into their off day feeling a bit better. I'd lay the -1.5 with the hope it's Lively and then the C-Team relievers.
Over/Under
Runs will most likely be flowing in this one, with both starters pitching to contact and usually seeing plenty of baserunners even in their better starts. Each team has serious star power, with Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and more representing a strong AL Central conference well.
These bats have the potential to put runs up, but the concern for the full game total would be that if this game is close, say a 4-3 lead going into the 7th inning, it may very well just end with that exact score. These teams both do very well in shutting games down late, especially the Guardians. So, for my favorite play on this one, I am isolating the starters and playing the first five innings to go over the number.
If you are looking to bet the full game total, I'd still say the over – but be alert for a close game and potentially look to the middle with an in-game bet on the Under if there's scoring from both sides early.
Guardians vs Royals Betting Trends
- 67% of the bets and 78% of the money are on the Royals on the moneyline.
- 95% of the bets and 95% of the money are on the over.
- 80% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Royals to cover the run line.
Guardians Betting Trends
- The Guardians are 80-59 this season, but just 37-34 on the road
- The Guardians are 3-6-1 to the Over in their past 10 games.
Royals Betting Trends
- The Royals are 3-7 over their past 10 games.
- The Guardians are 36-34-1 to the Over this season.
