The Cleveland Guardians (80-60) and Los Angeles Dodgers (84-56) kick off a three-game series at Dodger Stadium on Friday night. First pitch for this interleague — and potential World Series — clash is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on Bally Sports Great Lakes and SportsNet LA.
The Guardians and Dodgers both lead their respective divisions, but will need to keep things going to hold on to their advantages. Cleveland has extended its lead in the AL Central to four games over the Minnesota Twins and 4 1/2 games over the Kansas City Royals entering Friday. Those two teams are vying for AL wild-card spots as Cleveland has separated themselves for the moment.
The Dodgers are 7-3 over their last 10 games and have a five game lead for the NL West lead over the Padres. Los Angeles is currently tied with Philadelphia for the one seed in the National League. The Dodgers, however, lost right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, who was placed on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. Stone joins Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and River Ryan on the shelf as the Dodgers' starting rotation has been decimated by injuries.
Find my Guardians vs Dodgers prediction and F5 pick for Friday, September 6, below.
Guardians-Dodgers Predictions
- Guardians-Dodgers picks: Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-115 at DraftKings, bet to -120)
My Guardians-Dodgers best bet is on the Dodgers F5 -0.5, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+122 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -165 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-145 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +140 |
- Guardians-Dodgers Moneyline: Guardians +122 | Dodgers -145
- Guardians-Dodgers Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Guardians-Dodgers Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-165) | Dodgers -1.5 (+140)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Guardians at Dodgers
| Matthew Boyd (LHP) | Stat | Landon Knack (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.38 / 2.93 | ERA /xERA | 3.00 / 3.55 |
| 3.23 / 4.16 | FIP / xFIP | 4.73 / 4.38 |
| 0.84 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 17.4% | K-BB% | 16.4% |
| 34.4% | GB% | 33.1% |
| 73 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 103 | Location+ | 97 |
Cody Goggin’s Guardians vs Dodgers Preview
Guardians Betting Preview: Guardians Offense Fading
Matthew Boyd will take the mound for Cleveland tonight. The left-hander has made just four starters for the Guardians this year, posting a 2.38 ERA, 2.93 xERA and a 4.00 SIERA. Boyd is not a hard thrower as his average fastball velocity of 91.9 ranks in just the 19th percentile.
Boyd has a Stuff+ of 83 for his career and 73 this season. He has a 23.3 strikeout rate so far this season, which is just slightly below league average. Boyd has also shown good control as he has just a 5.8% walk rate and a Location+ of 103.
Boyd typically is above average in his career at preventing hard contact. While he avoids quality contact much of the time, Boyd is not a ground-ball heavy pitcher and instead batters have been able to get elevation against him and barrel balls up. After being terrible at this for much of his career, he ranked in the 39th percentile in barrel rate among qualified pitchers last year and has actually been well above average in his limited sample this season.
The Guardians have been right at league average on offense. They have a wRC+ of 100, which ranks 15th in the league. They are 17th in wOBA, SLG, and OBP. Cleveland has the 4th-lowest strikeout rate in the league but ranks 20th in walk rate as they instead rely on getting balls in play.
Cleveland ranks 30th in hard hit rate, 29th in barrel rate, and 30th in average exit velocity. They do have the 8th-highest fly ball rate and 5th-highest pull rate as they are often just lifting the ball over the fence for their source of power but don’t hit the ball hard whatsoever. This has resulted in them having the lowest BABIP in the league this season at .271.
This offense has also declined down the stretch. They rank 23rd in wRC+ both over the last 30 days and in the second half of the season. They are 25th in wOBA over this stretch but have kept their impressively low strikeout rate.
Dodgers Betting Preview: Lefty Not A Problem For Dodgers
Landon Knack has started eight games and appeared in ten this season. The rookie has thrown 48 innings, allowing an average of 3.00 runs with a WHIP of 1.00 and 44 strikeouts. Knack has an xERA of 3.55, a SIERA of 4.04, and an xFIP of 4.38.
The 27-year old has a Stuff+ of 104 and a Location+ of 97. His whiff rate ranks in just the 35th percentile and his strikeout rate is in the 49th percentile. This below average Location+ number is more a testament to the balls that are put in play against him than his overall control, as Knack ranks in the 77th percentile in walk rate.
Batted balls have been an issue for Knack, as previously mentioned. Knack ranks in the 14th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, 16th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 21st percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Knack also has just a 7th percentile ground ball rate as he has generated a ground ball only 33.1% of the time.
The Dodgers have been a force on offense all season. They rank 3rd in wRC+, wOBA, SLG, ISO, and OBP. They strike out slightly less than league average and walk at the third-highest rate in the league.
Los Angeles has hit the ball hard this season, ranking 4th in hard hit rate, 4th in barrel rate, and 5th in average exit velocity. They have the lowest ground ball rate in the league to go along with the highest line-drive rate and 7th-highest fly ball rate. This may pose a problem for Matthew Boyd, who already struggles to keep the ball on the ground and now will be forced to do so against one of the more powerful offenses in the league.
The Dodgers have been just fine against lefties this season, ranking 5th in wRC+, 3rd in wOBA, and 8th in ISO. When facing southpaws this year, the Dodgers have not walked as much, ranking 7th in walk rate, but have also cut their strikeout rate. LA has the 4th-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this season at just 19.7%.
Guardians vs Dodgers Prediction: F5 Betting Analysis
Boyd has been solid to start his Cleveland career, but his overall body of work suggests that he is likely outperforming his underlying numbers at this point. The Dodgers are one of the better offenses in the league and hit left-handers well, including a dramatic decrease in their strikeout rate from this side of the platoon. I think that we see the Dodgers have a good day on offense against Boyd and put up their fair share of runs early in this game.
The Guardians hit the ball extremely softly but it has worked to an extent. Knack doesn’t keep the ball on the ground so this may be an issue for him, but they also don’t hit the ball hard at all so I’m not terrified by that situation either.
Overall I like backing the best unit in this game, which is the LA offense. The Dodgers have hit the ball hard all year and I don’t expect that to change against Boyd tonight. I don’t think either pitcher will go very deep into this game so my favorite way to play this is by taking the Dodgers -0.5 over the first five innings at -115.
Pick: Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-115 at DraftKings, bet to -120)
Moneyline
The Guardians have been much better at home this season than on the road. They are 43-25 when playing in Cleveland but just 37-35 when playing away from home. The Dodgers are an outstanding 45-23 at home this season as they have been dominant at Chavez Ravine.
I do think the Dodgers are the better team here, but I don’t trust Knack enough to bet the Dodgers on the full game moneyline. Los Angeles does rank 5th in bullpen ERA this season, but Cleveland has the best bullpen ERA by a mile at 2.77.
Run Line (Spread)
The Dodgers are 37-31 against the spread in Dodger Stadium this season. Cleveland is 35-37 ATS on the road compared to 36-32 at home.
Similar to my thoughts on the moneyline, I don’t want to be on the full game spread for this necessarily. Once again, I think the Dodgers have a good chance to win this game, but I don’t wish to lay -1.5 with them when there’s not an enormous gap between the two starting pitchers and Cleveland having the better bullpen.
Over/Under
Dodgers games have gone 74-61-3 to the over this season, including 39-27-2 at Dodgers’ stadium. Cleveland’s ballpark was surprisingly offensively heavy at the start of the year so they have had a lot of home games hit the over, but are 39-27-6 to the under on the road this year.
I would have a slight lean towards the over of nine runs. While Cleveland doesn’t hit the ball hard, they do still put the ball in play frequently and this has turned into production for them this season. If Knack can’t keep them from putting the ball in play or elevating it, then Cleveland has the potential to score against him.
On the other side I do still think the Dodgers’ offense is elite and has a high probability of scoring multiple runs on Knack. I would prefer playing the F5 over to the full game over due to the bullpens being strong, but would still lean towards the over regardless.
Guardians-Dodgers Betting Trends
- 87% of the bets and 77% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
- 96% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the over.
- 93% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Guardians Betting Trends
- Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Guardians are 35-37 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Guardians' 68 last games at home.
Dodgers Betting Trends
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Dodgers are 33-37 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Dodgers' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 39 of Dodgers' 68 last games at home.
Guardians-Dodgers Key Injuries
Guardians Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Carlos Carrasco | Hip strain (15-day IL) |
Dodgers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Gavin Stone | Right shoulder inflammation (15-day IL) |
| LHP Clayton Kershaw | Left toe bone spur (15-day IL) |
| RHP Tyler Glasnow | Right elbow tendinitis (15-day IL) |
| RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Right triceps (60-day IL) |
