Yesterday was an ugly day for the Los Angeles Dodgers (84-57) and their fans.
Gavin Stone had been the team's only starter to avoid the IL this season, but he was added to the 15-day IL prior to Friday's series opener. Teoscar Hernandez then exited game after taking a pitch off the foot. Lastly, the team suffered a loss in the series opener to add a little bit more salt into the wound, cutting their NL West division lead to four games.
Justin Wrobleski was recalled from Triple-A and will presumably be called upon to work the bulk of this matchup, while the Cleveland Guardians (81-60) turn to 25 year-old righty Gavin Williams, who is getting the start instead of Alex Cobb (blister).
Continue below for my Guardians vs Dodgers predictions and picks for Saturday, September 7.
Guardians-Dodgers Predictions
- Guardians-Dodgers picks: Guardians F5 +0.5 (-120)
My Guardians-Dodgers best bet is on the Guardians to cover the first five innings run line (+0.5), where I see value at -120. The best line is available at bet365, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Dodgers Odds
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 9 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -162 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-162 | 9 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +136 |
- Guardians-Dodgers Moneyline: Guardians +136 | Dodgers -162
- Guardians-Dodgers Over/Under: 9 total runs (-108o / -112u)
- Guardians-Dodgers Spread: Guardians +1.5 (-162) | Dodgers -1.5 (+136
Projected Starting Pitchers for Guardians-Dodgers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | LHP Justin Wrobleski (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 4.55/4.03 | ERA /xERA | 6.82/6.97 |
| 3.65/3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 6.81/5.96 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 11.3% | K-BB% | 7.0% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 30.9% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 97 |
Nick Martin’s Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
Guardians Betting Preview: Strong Metrics for Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams bounced back from two ugly outings with quality starts in important matchups versus Kansas City. He has pitched to an ERA of 4.80 overall since the All-Star break, but features a strong underlying profile in that period which suggests he could be due for better.
Over his last 45 innings, Williams has pitched to an xFIP of 3.62, and struck-out 11.00 batters per nine. He has allowed a batting average of .231 with an xBA of .233. He has stranded only 69.8% of base runners though, and allowed a .415 slug-rate with runners in scoring position.
The Guardians rank sixth with a wRC+ of 111 versus left-handed pitching this season. Since the All-Star break they hold a wRC+ of 102 versus lefties, and hold a fifth best BB/K ratio in that span, as well as a 30.6% hard-hit rate.
Dodgers Betting Preview: Justin Wrobleski Off to Rough Start
Justin Wrobleski has pitched to a 3.76 ERA across 93 1/3 minor league innings this season, and the Dodgers sixth ranked prospect is expected to find improved results moving forward in at the games highest level. Still, it's been pretty ugly thus far for the young lefty.
Wrobleski has struck-out just 5.93 batters per nine, and allowed 2.67 home runs per nine in his initial 30 1/3 innings of work. He has thrown first pitch strikes only 59.7% of the time, and he has allowed a 90.7% zone contact rate.
The Dodgers had finally enjoyed a stretch of games with a healthy batting order prior to Teoscar Hernandez' injury last night, who is now listed as out with an ankle injury. Hernandez .819 OPS in an important spot in the lineup has lead to 87 RBI's this season.
Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 117 against right-handed pitching
Guardians vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis: Bet on Cleveland
Williams offers the Guardians a fairly significant pitching advantage in the early innings of this matchup, under the assumption that Wrobleski will work the majority of those innings. Cleveland has also been significantly more effective against left-handed pitching this season (6th-best wRC+ overall in 2024).
Backing the Guardians to win the game or the first five innings are also strong options, but my favorite price on the board is with the Guardians to tie or win the first five at anything better than -120.
Pick: Guardians First Five Innings +0.5 (-120) at bet365
Moneyline
| Guardians | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 81-60 | 84-57 |
| Home | 42-25 | 45-24 |
| Away | 38-35 | 38-32 |
| Favorite | 55-29 | 78-44 |
| Underdog | 25-30 | 5-11 |
Over/Under
| Guardians | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-67-10 | 74-62-3 |
| Home | 37-24-4 | 39-28-2 |
| Away | 38-32 | 35-34-1 |
| Favorite | 42-35-7 | 67-52-3 |
| Underdog | 21-31-3 | 7-9 |
Guardians vs Dodgers Betting Trends
- 88% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
- 93% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the over.
- 91% of the bets and 91% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Guardians Trends
- The Guardians are 6-4 in their last ten games
- The total has gone OVER in zero of the Guardians last five games
- The Guardians are 4-6 in their last ten games
- The Guardians are 4-1 in their last five games against the spread
Dodgers Trends
- The Dodgers are 6-4 in their last ten games
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Dodgers last ten games
- The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last ten games at home
- The Dodgers are 2-3 in their last five games against the spread
Guardians-Dodgers Key Injuries
Guardians Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Alex Cobb | Blister (scratched from Saturday start) |
| RHP Carlos Carrasco | Hip strain (15-day IL) |
Dodgers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| OF Teoscar Hernandez | Left foot (day-to-day) |
| RHP Gavin Stone | Right shoulder inflammation (15-day IL) |
| LHP Clayton Kershaw | Left toe bone spur (15-day IL) |
| RHP Tyler Glasnow | Right elbow tendinitis (15-day IL) |
| RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Right triceps (60-day IL) |
Guardians-Dodgers Weather Forecast
