Just a few short months ago, the Guardians held a sizable lead in the AL Central. However, times have changed and the Twins can cut the slumping Guardians' lead to a half-game with a win on Saturday at Target Field.
The Twins, however, were dealt multiple blows on the injury front — right-hander Joe Ryan is out indefinitely with a Grade 2 teres major strain while reliever Brock Stewart is out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery.
Guardians vs Twins odds for Saturday have the Twins as -115 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-120o / +100u). It seems like oddsmakers view these teams as close to even for Saturday's contest, which features a starting pitching matchup of Gavin Williams vs Simeon Woods Richardson.
Let's get to my Guardians vs Twins prediction and moneyline pick in my preview for this pivotal AL Central clash.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -210 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +175 |
Starting Pitchers for Guardians at Twins
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 4.91/4.66 | ERA /xERA | 3.87/4.03 |
| 3.36/3.79 | FIP / xFIP | 3.71/4.32 |
| 1.48 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| 3.o | K-BB% | 2.7 |
| 38.3 | GB% | 37.1 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Guardians vs Twins Preview, Prediction Saturday
Guardians Betting Preview: Gavin Williams a Mixed Bag
It's been a total mixed bag for Gavin Williams this season.
Since returning from injury, Williams has dealt with his fair share of misfortune and posted a 4.91 ERA with a 3.36 FIP. It should only be a matter of time before Williams morphs into a top-end starter in Cleveland's rotation, but his results have yet to match his potential or peripherals.
The Orioles pounced on Williams for six runs in less than five innings in his most recent start, but he also punched out eight batters. That marks three straight games with at least eight strikeouts for Williams, who will need to bring his strikeout stuff against a terrifying lineup.
Meanwhile, the Guardians' offense is tough to figure out. I'd love the Guardians' chances if this game was in Cleveland. However, they have struggled hitting on the road, posting a 96 wRC+ on the road compared to a 106 mark at home.
In general, Cleveland's offense has yet to catch fire this month. Steven Kwan is hitting just .239 with a 93 wRC+ since July 20th, and without him on base, opponents can carefully pitch to Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor without worrying about a two- or three-run-homer.
Cleveland is just 26th in MLB with an 80 wRC+ since July 20th.
On the bright side, Cleveland does boast an elite bullpen. You won't find a better trio than Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase, who each own ERAs below 2.00.
Twins Betting Preview: Offense Surging Sans Carlos Correa
Opposing Williams is another young pitcher, rookie Simeon Woods Richardson, whom the Twins received in return for Jose Berrios a few years back.
Woods Richardson is pitching to a 3.87 ERA and a 3.71 FIP through 95 innings this season. About 42% of his outs come via the fly ball, but he only allows 0.85 home runs per nine innings. He also ranks in the 39th percentile in strikeout rate and in the 26th percentile in ground-ball rate.
The Twins' offense continues to excel, despite Carlos Correa's absence. The Twins rank 10th in MLB with a 111 wRC+ since July 20th and also have the third-best walk rate in baseball in that span, trailing just the Orioles and Yankees.
Seven Twins batters own a wRC+ above 110 over the past three weeks. This lineup is performing at elite levels lately, which is why Minnesota has been able to put a considerable dent in Cleveland's AL Central lead.
That's what separates these lineups — Cleveland relies on Naylor and Ramirez, while the Twins put forth a team effort.
Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
I have to bet on the Twins at -125 here. While I believe in Williams turning his season around, the Guardians' offense just isn't hitting right now — especially on the road. The Guardians have lost seven straight and while they aren't the White Sox, they'll win soon enough, the Twins are humming.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
I'm very happy grabbing the moneyline here as the Twins have a major lineup advantage. In it's current state, Minnesota is a better team than the Guardians. Plus, Minnesota is 34-21 in home games, while Cleveland is 32-29 in road games. Being above .500 on the road isn't bad, but it's a far cry from its 35-20 home record.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on the run line. I'm expecting a tight game here in the Twin Cities. However, if you want a look at recent trends, the Twins have covered the -1.5 run line in three of their past five games, while the Guardians have failed to cover the run line in four of their past five.
Over/Under
The Guardians and Twins are both 7-3 in favor of the over in their past 10 games. With winds blowing out at around 8 mph, along with both teams favoring the over, I have faith in the total going Over 8.5.
