The Cleveland Guardians (72-52) and New York Yankees (73-52) begin their three-game series on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET on YES Network and Bally Sports Great Lakes.
These are the top two teams in the American League and each had a tough weekend. That adds a bit of extra importance as both squads look to avoid losing streaks with three 70-win teams occupying wild card spots.
Cleveland just got swept by the Brewers, only mustering up four runs across three games. The Yankees dropped their series in Detroit, similarly only scoring five runs in their three games.
In this Tuesday affair, rookie Luis Gil takes the mound for the Yankees as the Guardians turn to Matt Boyd.
Let's get into the latest MLB odds, including a Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees prediction and pick.
Guardians vs. Yankees Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 8.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -164 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-154 | 8.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +136 |
Guardians vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| Matt Boyd (CLE) | Stat | Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 12-6 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 1.69/2.25 | ERA /xERA | 3.25/3.49 |
| 0.91/2.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67/4.17 |
| 0.56 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 31.6% | K-BB% | 16% |
| 30.8% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 76 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 113 | Location+ | 95 |
Justin Perri’s Guardians vs Yankees Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Boyd Returns
There's no doubt that Boyd was impressive in his return from Tommy John surgery; he had a 38.8% CSW% and gave up no hits on his fastball in his first outing.
With the recent injury of Alex Cobb (fingernail), the Guardians need all the starting pitching that they can find.
This is one of the best teams in the American League, and they've done it behind a core of Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, Carlos Carrasco and Logan Allen, who are by no means elite names.
It's impressive, and it speaks to the immense talent that Cleveland has at every other spot on its depth chart. You could go as far to say that the Guardians are proving that you can be competitive without big name starters.
Adding Boyd to the mix is something that should excite Guardians fans and make this team more formidable. His first start last week against the Cubs was a masterclass in execution. Boyd kept the slider and changeup low, the fastball high and he confused batters all night. He struck out six and only allowed three hits.
After going over the 4.5 (-120) strikeout line set for his first outing, Boyd's prop sits at 5.5 with heavy -165 juice to the under for today's contest. His impressive Location+ numbers in the small sample likely gives way to the current position of the line.
The Yankees will be a tougher test as they feature the best two hitters in baseball by OPS, but the Guardians do have a propensity to see their road games stay under the line. Cleveland is 25-36-5 O/U on the road this season and is 2-6-2 O/U in its last 10 games.
The issue, though, is that the Cleveland offense might be the reason why the total stays low. The Guardians have failed to score more than three runs in nine of their last 12 games.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Gil Looks To Bounce Back
It was a rough and borderline embarrassing outing for Gil last week.
There's never going to be a great time to give up four runs in four innings while needing 98 pitches and only striking out three … but to do it against the White Sox? The White Sox have lost more than 20 games in a row this season, so that's a bit of an eye-popper.
We've seen Gil struggle in 2024; he gave up 16 runs in nine innings across three starts in late June before bouncing back and allowing just six runs across his next five starts. The question becomes: Is this just a one-off blip, or is Gil a streaky pitcher who might again struggle for a week or two?
The numbers and pitch mix data indicate that Gil probably hasn't been at his best in any of his last three starts and likely got a little lucky.
That said, there's reason to trust him at home. His WHIP drops from 1.24 on the road to 1.065 when pitching at Yankee Stadium this year. This correlates to his better strikeout numbers at home (80 Ks in 12 home starts vs. 61 in 11 road starts).
His strikeout prop sits at 5.5 with a slight -120 juice to the over. Gil has struck out six or more in four of his last five starts, and the lower number here is a testament to the contact skill the Cleveland hitters have.
The Yankees have been beatable at home, with just a 32-27 record when playing at Yankee Stadium. They do, however, have a 55-42 moneyline record when favored.
As for the total, the Yankees are 33-25-1 O/U at home and 55-38-2 O/U when favored.
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
The line has moved ten cents overnight in favor of the Guardians while the total has stayed consistent at 8.5.
New York won the initial series between these teams this season in Cleveland, taking the first two games before the Guardians were able to avoid a sweep.
Both of these top teams have been struggling offensively and have the pitching to keep the other at bay, or at least limit the damage.
It's a bit of a cool August day in New York; game time temperatures are expected to be in the 70s, and these teams have combined to score just nine runs in their last 54 innings.
Sometimes in baseball you need to ride with the ups and the downs, and both of these teams are on the down, especially in terms of scoring runs.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, Caesars) | Play to Under 8.5 (-115)
Moneyline
The Yankees have only dropped three in a row once since July 5 and are coming off back-to-back losses. Tuesday starts a full week at home for New York and precedes a three game home-stand for the Guardians. This should be a winning spot for New York in a close game behind Gil, even if he isn't at 100%.
Run Line (Spread)
The Yankees have struggled from the run line perspective this year, holding a 62-63 record ATS. With some of the bullpen woes New York is currently facing, it makes sense that giving Cleveland the +1.5 spikes the price from +130 on the ML to -164 on the run line. There's a good chance this is a one-run win for the home team.
Over/Under
Cleveland hasn't gone over its number in any of its last five games, New York has gone over just once in its last five. Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade. High level matchups often create lower-scoring totals. Take the full game total under to capitalize on rested bullpen with high level talent.
