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The Cleveland Guardians won a thrilling game on Tuesday night, defeating the New York Yankees 9-5 in 12 innings.
The Guardians will try to secure the series win today with left-hander Joey Cantillo on the mound.
The Yankees’ quirky southpaw Nestor Cortes will oppose Cantillo. The Yankees left a lot of ducks on the pond last night, and the race for the AL’s best record is as close as can be with a flurry of teams behind them.
Oddsmakers have the Guardians as +160 underdogs and the total set at 8.5. Let’s dive into my Guardians vs Yankees prediction for the best betting angle of the matchup below.
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction: Bet Cleveland Moneyline
- Guardians vs Yankees pick: Guardians to win (+164 at FanDuel, bet to +140)
Guardians vs Yankees Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -196 |
Guardians vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Joey Cantillo (CLE) | Stat | LHP Nestor Cortes (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | W-L | 6-10 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 6.23/7.24 | ERA /xERA | 4.20/3.72 |
| 3.96/4.33 | FIP / xFIP | 3.91/4.10 |
| 1.62 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 5.2% | K-BB% | 17.8% |
| 44.2% | GB% | 30.1% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 92 | Location+ | 102 |
John Feltman’s Guardians vs Yankees Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Tall Task For Cantillo
The Guardians stole a victory last night in the Bronx, returning from an early deficit.
Tonight is a tall task for the Guardians because Joey Cantillo gets the start.
It will be Cantillo's fourth big league start, and he has not had great results thus far. Cantillo's minor league numbers are mixed, but his Triple-AAA results were not too impressive.
If you look at the pitching matchup chart above, you will notice that Cantillo possesses a 3.96 FIP, which is far lower than his current ERA. But, his results thus far do not give any signs of him being more effective moving forward.
The good news for Cantillo is that the Yankees surprisingly struggle against left-handed pitching. The Yankees have also struggled in road games this season, which could work in Cantillo's favor.
If Cantillo can avoid a meltdown, he should give the Guardians' offense a chance to win the game late. But that will not be as easy as it sounds.
The Guardians hitters have a .196 batting average against Cortes in the past, over 51 at-bats. It is hard to project how well they will do on Wednesday evening, but the good news is that the Yankees bullpen has been an absolute disaster as of late.
If the Guardians can keep the game tied until the latter innings, they should have a great chance to win. Oddsmakers are being generous with the current money line on the board as of Wednesday morning.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Frustrations Mounting
It has been a frustrating last couple of games for the Yankees, who now find themselves on a 3-game losing streak. They must wake the bats today to avoid sweating a late-game lead.
Nestor Cortes gets the ball, and as you can tell from the pitching matchup chart above, it has been a season of mixed results for the left-hander. Cortes is among the elite in limiting free passes, but he is not striking out too many hitters.
The key for Cortes has always been his ability to change speeds and limit fly balls. He has had success against the Guardians' bats in the past, so he needs to continue that trend to allow his offense to score some runs early.
The Yankees' bullpen is a major problem, as they are failing to secure leads late in games. Once the game reached the 12th inning, it was inevitable that they would eventually implode.
The Yankees offense draws a strong matchup against Cantillo, but besides Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, I can not put faith in the rest of the lineup. The Yankees offense has been inconsistent, with a team batting average of .245 and an on-base percentage of .320 this season. The Bombers struggle against left-handed pitchers, and the Guardians bullpen is among baseball’s best.
How to Watch Guardians vs Yankees: Start Time, Channel, Location
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 21, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming: | MLB.TV |
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
The market is being too generous with the Guardians' moneyline here.
86% of the Public seems to believe the Yankees will bounce back today, but I disagree. In a recent game against the Chicago Cubs, a pitcher's successful return from surgery highlighted the significance of this matchup in the broader narrative of the season.
I value the Guardians today simply because of their huge bullpen advantage. Last night was a great example of how the bullpen edge made a big difference in extra innings. The Yankees' recent matchups against the White Sox have shown their struggles, particularly noting a lengthy losing streak and specific player performances.
We should be in good shape as long as Cantillo does not implode.
Guardians vs Yankees Pick: Guardians ML (+164 | Bet to +140)
Moneyline
BET: Guardians ML
As mentioned, I think the market has gone too far here. The Guardians have a tough matchup against Cortes, but I trust their offense to break through late against the Yankees pen.
Run Line (Spread)
PASS
I don’t see any value in Guardians +1.5 at -155, and there is no way I am laying -1.5 with the Yankees right now.
Over/Under
PASS
The uncertainty of Cantillo and Cortes’ performances doesn’t comfort me taking either side of the total. The Yankees bullpen also throws a wrench into the entire equation, so there’s no value to be had here. If I had to take a side, I’d lean the under.
Guardians vs Yankees Betting Trends
GUARDIANS:
- Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Guardians are 33-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Guardians' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Guardians' 58 last games at home
YANKEES:
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Yankees are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Yankees are 36-30 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Yankees' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Yankees' 60 last games at home
