The American League Championship Series begins on Monday night at Yankee Stadium, where the Cleveland Guardians take on the New York Yankees. First pitch for ALCS Game 1 is scheduled for 7:38 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS, truTV and Max.
The Yankees endured some tough luck at the plate against the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS, leaning on a stellar showing from their pitching staff to move on to the ALCS, where they'll look to continue to beat down on a Guardians team they went 4-2 against during the regular season. The Guardians survived a tough series against the Tigers in the last round. Under the surface, however, there should be plenty more to believe in with the home side here.
Let's preview Game 1 of the ALCS and get into my Guardians vs Yankees predictions and picks for Monday, Oct. 14.
My Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Game 1
- Guardians vs Yankees picks: Yankees Moneyline (-160) | Play to -167
My Guardians vs Yankees best bet is the Yankees moneyline, where I see value at -160. The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Odds, Prediction
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +145 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -175 |
- Guardians vs Yankees Moneyline: Guardians +145, Yankees -175
- Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Guardians vs Yankees Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-150), Yankees -1.5 (+125)
Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 Probable Pitchers
| RHP Alex Cobb (CLE) | Stat | LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 16-9 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 2.76/4.87 | ERA /xERA | 3.96/4.14 |
| 2.83/4.85 | FIP / xFIP | 4.39/4.09 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 7.7% | K-BB% | 18.8% |
| 61.2% | GB% | 34.6% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 122 |
| 105 | Location+ | 97 |
Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 Previews
Guardians Betting Preview: Queasiness Around Cobb
The Guardians, like many teams who enter the rigors of the postseason, have fallen a bit from their perch offensively. They've hit just .234 through five playoff games, dealing with an increased strikeout rate of 22.8% and failing to exhibit any kind of patience at the plate with a measly 5% walk rate.
They'll now attempt to settle into an arduous matchup against Carlos Rodon, whose heavy fly-ball look could pose problems for a team which has hit six points worse against these types.
It's true that Cleveland has been much better against left-handers this year, but the strikeout-reliant Rodon should continue to have the success he did down the stretch on account of Cleveland's .619 OPS against power pitchers this season, which ranked second-worst in the league, and its brutal .218 Expected Batting Average thus far in the postseason.
While Cleveland's bullpen finished first in ERA this season, it has ranked just eighth among all teams playing this October at 3.16 and could be leaned upon heavily here with Alex Cobb taking the ball in Game 1.
Cobb has lost his ability to pitch to ground balls over the past two years just as quickly as he found it in L.A., pitching to a .278 xBA last season and coming in at .280 in an incredibly abbreviated 2024 campaign due to injury. He owns a .275 xBA over his career against this Yankees group, and he's checked in with a .286 xBA pitching in the Bronx during his career.
The veteran right-hander was ineffective in his lone start this postseason to boot, yielding two runs on three hits and a walk in Detroit last week.
Yankees Betting Preview: Yanks Should Be Scoring More Runs
The Yankees had a big decision ahead of them here, opting to go with Carlos Rodon in Game 1 over Clarke Schmidt. The move was likely made to set Rodon up for a friendly road matchup in Game 5, but he might find just as much success here against Cleveland on Monday.
Rodon will draw an opponent which ranked second-worst in OPS to power pitchers this season as a man who's grown by leaps and bounds in that area in the final months of his 2024 campaign.
The left-hander came home with a blistering 30.1% strikeout rate in the final month of the season, producing an excellent 34.2% whiff rate while having plenty of success in pitching to fly balls with a .226 xBA. He managed to register a whopping seven strikeouts against the Royals a week ago but was done in by seven hits — including a home run — as he started hot and finished with four earned runs over 3 2/3 frames.
The Guardians may be succeeding against lefties, but they've had a miserable time against strikeout artists this season, and with some more strikeouts piling up against Detroit, they could find it tough to score runs — particularly with a poor .218 xBA this postseason to rank ninth among the 12 teams to play this October.
Speaking of that figure, you'd have to say this Yankees offense has been a bit unlucky this postseason. They've hit just .220 but rank second with a .280 xBA through four games and first with a stunning 49.5% hard-hit rate. In chorus with a monstrous 17.3% walk rate, this team really should be scoring more runs — and after racking up eight hits and five walks in Game 4 versus Kansas City, I think we'll see further positive regression early in this series.
Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
This Yankee offense should be in a marvelous spot on Monday, considering they've hit the ball hard and exhibited excellent plate discipline this postseason. Making matters better is Cobb's tough track record at Yankee Stadium over his career and .275 lifetime xBA and .526 xSLG against these hitters.
As an extreme ground-ball arm, Cobb should falter against a team which finished second in baseball with an .805 OPS against these types with a splendid .280 average. We've also touched on the slight step back that this bullpen has taken during the playoffs, so I'm expecting big things out of the offense.
Rodon's outlook should be similarly strong with his surging strikeout totals, putting Cleveland in a tough spot, one made murkier by a brutal performance in hitting the baseball against the Tigers. If Rodon is knocked out early, he'll have a bullpen behind him that has yet to allow a run this postseason in 15-2/3 innings of work.
The Yankees are deserving favorites here, and I'll drink the juice as a result.
Pick: Yankees ML (-160)
Moneyline
The Yankees opened up as -153 favorites and have steadily fallen as the day has gone on Monday, approaching -170 as of this writing. We're tracking sharp action hitting New York.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
The Yankees failed to hit the run line against Kansas City until Game 4 of the ALDS and are 3-3 against the spread against Cleveland this season. Interestingly enough, they were 2-1 to the run line against the Guardians this season at home.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
The total has remained rather stagnant at the opening line of 7.5 runs, with some slight action towards the over. With that said, the sharp action we've seen has hit the under.
Pick: Pass
Guardians Betting Trends
- Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
Yankees Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees' 81 last games at home
- The Yankees are 72-54 (.571) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .453
Guardians vs Yankees Key Injuries
Guardians Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Pedro Avila | Added to ALCS roster |
Yankees Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 1B Anthony Rizzo | Fractured fingers on right hand (on ALCS roster) |
| RHP Marcus Stroman | On ALCS roster |
| 1B Ben Rice | Left off ALCS roster |
| OF Duke Ellis | Left off ALCS roster |
Guardians vs Yankees Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Yankee Stadium in Bronx, N.Y. |
| Date: | Monday, Oct. 14, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel / Streaming: | TBS; truTV; Max / MLB.TV; YouTube TV; Sling TV |
