Guardians vs Yankees Game 2 Predictions, Picks, Odds

The New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium for Game 2 of the ALCS on Tuesday night. First pitch is scheduled for 7:38 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS, truTV and Max; other viewing/streaming options include MLB.TV, Fubo and Sling TV.

Guardians vs Yankees odds (via BetMGM) for Game 2 have the Yankees as -165 moneyline favorites and Guardians as +140 underdogs. The over/under is a consensus total of 7 (-105o / -115u). The Yankees are +135 to cover the run line (-1.5) while the Guardians are -160 (+1.5)

Find my Guardians vs Yankees Game 2 predictions, picks and odds, plus probable pitchers (Tanner Bibee and Gerrit Cole), recently announced starting lineups, team betting trends and more below.

My Guardians vs Yankees Predictions for Game 2

• Guardians vs Yankees picks: Yankees Moneyline -165 (Play to -185)

My Yankees vs Guardians best bet for Tuesday is on the Yankees moneyline, where I see value at -165. The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Tuesday, Oct. 15

7:38 p.m. ET

TBS, truTV, Max

Guardians Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+140	7 -105o / -115u	+1.5 -160

Yankees Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-165	7 -105o / -115u	-1.5 +135

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Guardians vs Yankees Moneyline: Guardians +140, Yankees -165
• Guardians vs Yankees Total: Over/Under 7 (-105o / -115u)
• Guardians vs Yankees Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-160), Yankees -1.5 (+135)

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Guardians vs Yankees Game 2 Previews, Lineups

Guardians Game 2 Betting Preview

Guardians Game 2 Lineup

1. Steven Kwan (LF)
2. Kyle Manzardo (DH)
3. Jose Ramirez (3B)
4. Josh Naylor (1B)
5. Lane Thomas (CF)
6. Will Brennan (RF)
7. Andres Gimenez (2B)
8. Bo Naylor (C)
9. Brayan Rocchio (SS)

The Cleveland Guardians are a fascinating story. They represent a style of team composition that hasn't been seen often, and they're the last standing member of a historical season in the AL Central.

To illustrate how different the Guardians are than most serious playoff contenders, let's start with the fact that their ace is on the mound tonight and barely anyone outside of baseball likely knows his name.

Tanner Bibee is, by definition, the first starter in the rotation and thus the "ace" for Cleveland — but he's not the typical definition of a leading starter.

Bibee went 12-8 this season, throwing 173 innings and posting a 3.47 ERA with a 3.56 FIP and 1.12 WHIP. His Stuff+ is actually below the normalized MLB average.

I'd argue that probably puts him in the top 35 starters in the big leagues. Yet, he is still the best on a team that has made it further than all but the other three Championship Series contenders.

So how did the Guardians get here without an elite rotation and maybe the worst starting pitching staff of any playoff team? Well, the bullpen, of course.

I say of course because even casual fans have heard of Emmanuel Clase by now. He is the best closer in baseball, the closest thing to the Mariano Rivera of today's era that we've got. Clase is him, and with excellent setup options in front of him, Cleveland shuts opponents down after the sixth inning.

You have to score on the Guardians early — they basically have given opponents just two-thirds of the game to score while they get the full nine frames.

Their hitting is constructed for a bit of small ball so that they can capitalize on the low run totals against and win close contests with elite-level hitters like Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez being enough to win without the muscle other teams might have. They still have power hitters in the Naylor brothers and 'Big Christmas' Jhonkensy Noel, but these are guys who lack trade in average for slugging and are more likely to contribute a solo home run than add to a string of hits in a big inning.

The focus on the bullpen, as well as stellar defense, is not flashy, but it's effective. Cleveland was 61-16 on the moneyline this season when opponents scored fewer than four runs and they were 77-29 when opponents scored fewer than five runs.

That's almost half of its games with opponents scoring fewer than four — their strategy worked effectively. Could you argue the Guardians got a bit of a boost from a weak AL Central that beat up on the White Sox for inflated records? Potentially.

Game 1 made it seem like Cleveland was no match for New York, and the Guardians will need to limit the offense of the Bronx Bombers, as they are simply not constructed to win a high-scoring game against typical playoff rosters.

If you like the Guardians to win some games this series, which I personally do not, I would recommend doing so through the angle of limiting the Yankees.

Bibee has a great slider — it's the pitch hitters have been the least lucky with all season, per PitcherList.com, rating in the 100th percentile of hitter luck.

The slider has a HR/FB rate in the 75th percentile, but the fastball and curve are closer to the 35th percentile. He'll need to throw it for strikes to keep the Yankees from sitting on the heater, but he's good at locating the pitch so we should get a good battle, I'm just not sure it will be enough.

Yankees Game 2 Betting Preview

Yankees Game 2 Lineup

1. Gleyber Torres (2B)
2. Juan Soto (RF)
3. Aaron Judge (CF)
4. Austin Wells (C)
5. Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B)
7. Anthony Volpe (SS)
8. Anthony Rizzo (1B)
9. Alex Vergugo (LF)

If there were ever going to be bias in my articles, it would be with my hometown, back-yard Yankees. I live 20 minutes from the stadium and have for more than 85% of my life.

That said, the bias would likely be against them. I was ready to hang up the towel last night, in Game 1, as Aaron Judge struck out with men on first and second with no outs in the first. The Yankees not scoring after Gleyber Torres and Juan Soto both got aboard to open the frame was concerning, but I am going to remain positive and use the stats. They had a phenomenal first game and they look like they should continue to beat the pants off the Guardians.

Why do I feel confident, New York went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position in Game 1 and still scored five runs. New York put 13 men aboard to Cleveland's seven. The Yankees worked seven walks! They forced Clevelands bullpen to handle more than five innings, and the Yankees threw 16 fewer pitches even though the Guardians didn't take the mound in the ninth!

Sure, Clase likely pitches in a high-leverage situation today — but how early will that be?

Tanner Bibee has not faced New York this season; he will be getting his first experience against the red-hot Giancarlo Stanton and the overdue Judge. I tend to think it won't go well.

Also, to be fair to Judge, he has played more than adequately in the last two contests, it's just his game-breaking potential leaves so much to be desired.

With Soto batting second behind Torres, Austin Wells cleaning up behind Judge, and then still having a back half of Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, Anthony Rizzo and Alex Verdugo, this lineup simply clears anything Cleveland can cobble together.

On the mound today for the Yankees is the eponymous Gerrit Cole, who finally looked to be back to his old self in his second ALDS start against the Royals.

Even in a down year marred by injury, a lack of spring training and a subsequent slow start, Cole still has an elite arsenal perfectly suited to mow down any competition at any time.

The fastball sits at 97 mph, faster than 85% of the league. He pairs it with a perfectly tunneled curveball that looks like it's going to be a high fastball, but then the bottom drops out and it hits the bottom of the zone for a strike, regardless if you swing. He gets 2.5 inches of break more than the average on the curve. It's beautiful to watch.

With the lead in their pocket, I expect the leash to be off Cole. This Yankees team struggles at home and was the best road team in baseball last year and dominated the Royals the moment they stepped outside of the Bronx.

I'm not sure why they struggle in New York, but all the more reason to let Cole have this game — let him throw seven innings if he feels good to preserve the bullpen and try to complete the sweep in Cleveland, or at least go for the Gentleman's Sweep with a rested bullpen and a top-to-bottom (besides Clase) better roster.

Guardians vs Yankees Prediction & Moneyline Betting Analysis

The Yankees technically opened as high as -196, but as starters were announced the line stabilized a bit closer to -175, which I think is probably a more fair opening line to consider.

From there, we've seen a bit of tug toward Cleveland but then buy back to New York. All of that, though, is just five cents here or there and nothing too drastic.

Any moves closer to game time should be treated with more respect. The total and spread have not moved at all aside from small five-cent shifts at various shops.

My pick tonight is the Yankees moneyline. It's just still a bit too cheap with Cole on the mound. His stuff looked phenomenal last time out and when you look at the lineups, these teams really just aren't in the same stratosphere.

If you want to liberally call Jose Ramirez and Judge equally good, and Kwan as valuable as maybe Stanton, there's still Soto, Chisolm, Volpe, Torres and Wells who clear Lane Thomas and the Naylor Brothers without much doubt.

Bibee is solid, but this is a challenge unlike most of what he's dealt with this season. It's not if he allows runs, it's how many, and Cole should be primed and ready to go in the cold weather.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline -165 (BetMGM | Play to -185)

Moneyline

It's impressive to see a -170 favorite in the playoffs. It's the exact same price as Game 1 last night, which, to me, does not make much sense.

Bibee is not all that much better of an option than Cobb, while Cole should carry less risk of implosion than Rodon for New York.

Could it maybe be the assumption of Clase's impact? It certainly isn't a concern that Cleveland will hit a right-handed starter better than they did the lefty Rodon last night, because the Guardians are decidedly worse against righties.

I really do not understand why New York isn't priced higher. I projected a -200 price behind Cole and am more than happy to wager on the Yankees at -170 or -175.

I also like series bets on Yankees -2.5, Under 5.5 games and a sprinkle on a Yankees series win 4-1 at +425 odds.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline

Run Line (Spread)

I lean toward New York on the spread tonight as well, but the price is just a little low to make it an actual play.

With the total sitting at 7, you're really playing hard on New York's offense showing up, and showing up emphatically. I would love to think it has the chance to score 10 runs, but it will likely be a bit less given that temperatures might fall into the high 40s by 9 p.m. ET.

With it tougher to score runs, and the Yankees focused on winning, not covering, I'd stay away from the run line, but lean toward Cleveland on the +1.5 if you must choose wager.

Pick: Slight lean on Guardians +1.5

Over/Under

It's tough to hit a baseball when it's cold.

The foul balls sting the hands more, hitters get colder in the dugout and then the ball's path in the air dies out sooner because of the more dense particles it has to fly through.

Then on top of that you have Gerrit Cole and Emmanuel Clase pitching and the back half of a Guardians lineup that would be offensive if they weren't all such defensive superstars.

Nonetheless, runs should be pretty hard to come by today and will likely be powered by slugging rather than small ball. I lean under but feel better about targeting the Guardians team total Under or a Live under rather than the pregame number.

Pick: Guardians team total under or live under

Guardians Trends

• The Guardians were 41-40 in their road games against the spread in the regular season

Yankees Trends

• Right-handed batters hit just .136 (3-for-22) against Gerrit Cole over the last two weeks — 10th best among qualified SPs– 85th Percentile.
• Gerrit Cole has allowed an OPS of just .575 (736 PA's) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 95th Percentile
• Gerrit Cole has a strikeout rate of 29% (212 SO in 736 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile

Guardians vs Yankees Game 2 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming