The New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, August 22. The stage is set, so let's get to my Guardians vs Yankees prediction.
Gerrit Cole seems to finally be turning a corner. His strikeout numbers have ticked up in his past two starts, but he has still been giving up hard contact and struggling to keep the ball on the ground.
He will face the Guardians, who have been atrocious at the plate against right-handed pitching lately, on Thursday. Gavin Williams will start for Cleveland and although he's been subpar on the mound, he does boast an above-average strikeout rate.
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction: Yankees Team Total Over
- Guardians vs Yankees pick: Yankees Over 4.5 Runs | Bet to 5
The New York Yankees are a bit pricey on the moneyline, but they should be able to score early in this matchup.
Guardians vs Yankees Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -138 | 8 -112o / -108u | +146 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8 -112o / -108u | -174 |
Guardians vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | W-L | 4-2 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 5.02/4.48 | ERA /xERA | 4.15/4.22 |
| 3.44/3.81 | FIP / xFIP | 4.20/3.81 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 19.6% |
| 39.4% | GB% | 36.6% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
D.J. James’ Guardians vs Yankees Preview
Guardians Betting Preview: Fade Williams
Williams holds a 5.02 ERA and a 4.48 xERA. He might have some positive regression headed his way, but his average exit velocity is 91 mph with a hard-hit rate in the 12th percentile. His barrel rate is above average and he has a 24.4% strikeout rate, but an inability to keep the ball on the ground has caused problems. He is starting to limit walks (under 8%), but hasn't been steady enough to back in this matchup.
Cleveland has an 86 wRC+, an 8% walk rate and a 20.1% strikeout rate against righties in the past month. The Guardians have one batter above a .300 xwOBA (José Ramírez) and another at exactly .300 (Steven Kwan). Otherwise, this lineup lacks the potency it needs to compete with Cole.
The Guardians do have a good relief staff. In the past month, they have a 3.87 xFIP, a 24.8% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate.
Yankees Betting Preview: Cole Could Find Success
Cole has a 4.15 ERA and a 4.22 xERA. His average exit velocity is just under 90 mph with a hard-hit rate in the 53rd percentile. His barrel rate is worse than Williams’, as is his ground-ball rate. Cole also owns a 26.8% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. He has a 1.59 ERA over three starts in August, but also has a few red flags.
The Yankees have a 147 wRC+ off of righties in the past month with a 10.8% walk rate and a 19.0% strikeout rate. They have eight active bats with an xwOBA above .310 xwOBA. This lineup has has been swinging well, so Williams could be in for a short start.
The Yankees bullpen has a 4.07 xFIP in the past month with a 22.1% strikeout rate and a 8.9% walk rate, but Cole can pitch deep against an ailing Cleveland lineup, especially if he limits the free passes.
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Cleveland’s lineup has been atrocious against righties lately, and backing them against Cole would be a mistake. That said, the Yankees’ moneyline price, although accurate, is a too juiced for me to take. The Yankees should get to Williams and also have the patience to negate the advantage of Cleveland’s bullpen. Bet the Yankees to go over their team total and play that up to five.
Guardians vs Yankees Pick: New York Yankees Over 4.5 Runs | Play to 5
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline as there's simply too much juice.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not going to play the Guardians vs. Yankees run lin.
Over/Under
The total is also a pass for me in this game.
Guardians vs Yankees Betting Trends
GUARDIANS:
- Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games
- Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Guardians are 33-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Guardians' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 32 of Guardians' 58 last games at home
YANKEES:
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Yankees are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Yankees are 36-30 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Yankees' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Yankees' 61 last games at home
