The Colorado Rockies (54-92) and Detroit Tigers (75-71) wrap their three-game interleague series on Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET; the game can be watched on Bally Sports Detroit or streamed on MLB.TV.
The Tigers enter Thursday on a four-game winning streak and in search of a sweep of the lowly Rockies. Detroit sends heavy AL Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal to the hill to finish off the job. A low-key storyline to monitor is that the Tigers are alive in the AL wild-card hunt, sitting three games behind the Minnesota Twins (78-68).
With Skubal on the mound, I'm looking to back the Tigers, but which bet makes the most sense? Find my Rockies vs Tigers prediction for Thursday, September 12 below.
Rockies-Tigers Prediction
- Rockies-Tigers picks: Tigers -1.5 (-110 | Play to -150)
My Rockies-Tigers best bet is on Tigers run line (-1.5), where I see value at -110. The best line is available at FanDuel — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+250 | 7 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -122 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-320 | 7 -120o / +100u | -1.5 -145 |
- Rockies-Tigers Moneyline: Rockies +250 | Tigers -320
- Rockies-Tigers Over/Under: 7 total runs (-120o / +100u)
- Rockies-Tigers Spread: Rockies +1.5 (-122) | Tigers -1.5 (-145)
Rockies-Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | RHP Ryan Feltner (COL) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-4 | W-L | 2-10 |
| 5.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 2.53/2.76 | ERA /xERA | 4.96/4.55 |
| 2.54/2.86 | FIP / xFIP | 4.32/4.14 |
| 0.95 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 25.5% | K-BB% | 12.7% |
| 45.2% | GB% | 44.8% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 103 | Location+ | 99 |
Sean Paul's Rockies-Tigers Series Finale Preview
Tigers Betting Preview: Tarik Skubal Leads Detroit's Playoff Push
If you haven't paid attention to possibly the most surprising storyline in baseball over the past month, I'll break it down for you. The Tigers, who looked dead in the water a few months ago, are threatening the rival Twins for the third AL wild-card spot.
Tarik Skubal has more than locked down the AL Cy Young Award. He’s been sensational this year, posting a 2.53 ERA — with a 2.54 FIP to match — with an elite 10.72 K/9 and 0.72 HR/9.
If you go to Skubal’s Baseball Savant page, you’ll see a lot of red circles. That just illustrates Skubal’s dominance. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in xERA, 92nd in K rate, 94th in BB rate and 86th in hard-hit rate. Good luck finding a hole in Skubal’s attack, because there isn’t one.
The Tigers bats know the best way to show love to their ace — with run support. Detroit has won 15 of Skubal’s 28 starts by two-plus runs.
With both Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene back to full health, Detroit’s offense is leading the charge for its late wild-card push. We can't forget about how good Carpenter and Greene have performed this year.
Carpenter is a pure righty masher, posting a 153 wRC+, while Greene has a 137 wRC+. That's a pair of All-Star-level bats that Detroit didn't have for a couple of months. If you take any team's two best hitters away (save maybe the White Sox), it'll lead to a pretty rough performance.
The Tigers have posted a 101 wRC+ since August 15, which places them 12th in MLB in that span. The biggest problem surrounding the Tigers' bats is their strikeout-prone tendencies, punching out 27% of the time.
Rockies Betting Preview: Another Dreadful Season
While the Tigers have out of nowhere to contend for a playoff spot, the Rockies' playoff chances disappeared long ago. Colorado enters Wednesday's game tied with the Marlins for the worst record in the NL at 54-92, fresh off two convincing losses to the Tigers.
Ryan Feltner enters this outing with a 6.25 ERA at Coors and a 3.99 ERA in road games. He’s not the first half of 2010 Ubaldo Jimenez, but he’s probably a bit better than his overall 4.96 ERA. That's why I love looking at FIP, a stat that accounts for pitching environments. Feltner's FIP sits at 4.32, which makes his year a little better than his ERA indicates.
The Rockies' bats have gone cold over the last month, posting a 73 wRC+ since August 15, which is only better than the White Sox.
What’s gone wrong for the Rockies offense? They are incredibly prone to striking out, punching out 28.7% of the time. Pairing strikeout issues with the 25th-best OBP in baseball during that span makes for a pretty dreadful offensive stretch.
The two best Rockies hitters in that span are Michael Toglia (107 wRC+) and Brenton Doyle (102 wRC+). Their two best hitters are barely above league average. I think that's a good representation as to why the Rockies offense has been an absolute nightmare lately.
Rockies vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis: Run Line
How could I not take the Tigers run line here?
At -110, I think the Tigers to cover the spread is a terrific play. They have the much better offense, posting a wRC+ over 30 points higher in the past month, with the best pitcher in the sport on the hill. Plus, they've won by two-plus runs in the first two games of this series.
Pick: Tigers Run Line -1.5
Moneyline
The Tigers are -250 on the moneyline against the Rockies. It makes sense and is fairly priced with Skubal on the hill.
No value here. Pass for me.
Run Line (Spread)
Tigers run line is my best bet.
Over/Under
Even with Skubal on the mound (he'll likely dominate the Rockies), I still think the total is low at 7.5 runs. I'd grab the over here, and hope the Tigers offense crushes the Rockies' terrible pitching staff.
Rockies-Tigers Betting Trends
- 95% of the bets and 95% of the money are on the Tigers moneyline.
- 95% of the bets and 94% of the money are on the over.
- 97% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the Tigers to cover the run line.
Rockies Betting Trends
- Rockies are 2-3 in their last 5 games
Tigers Betting Trends
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Tigers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Tigers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Tigers' 70 last games at home
Rockies-Tigers Weather
