The Tampa Bay Rays host the Colorado Rockies on Friday, March 28. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Rockies TV, FanDuel Sports Sun and MLB.TV.
Tampa Bay was expected to have ace Shane McClanahan make the start on Opening Day, returning after missing the entire 2024 season following Tommy John surgery. However, McClanahan left his final spring training start early and will begin the year on the injured list with a triceps injury. In his stead, the Rays are starting right-hander Ryan Pepiot against the Rockies' Kyle Freeland.
Find my Friday MLB betting preview and Rockies vs Rays predictions and parlay picks below, as well as public betting trends, probable pitchers, starting lineups, injury reports, weather forecast and viewing information.
Rockies vs Rays Predictions
- Rockies vs Rays pick: Over 7.5 (Play to 8)
My Rockies vs. Rays best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Rays Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 8 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 8 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Rockies vs Rays Moneyline: Rockies +180, Rays -220
- Rockies vs Rays Total: Over/Under 8 (-110/-110)
- Rockies vs Rays Run Line: Rockies +1.5 (-120), Rays -1.5 (+100)
- Rockies vs Rays Best Bet: Over 7.5 (bet to Over 8)
Rockies vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
Stats from 2024 season
| LHP Kyle Freeland (COL) | Stat | RHP Ryan Pepiot (TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-8 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 5.24 | ERA | 3.60 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 6.8 | K/9 | 9.8 |
| 3.27 | K/BB | 2.96 |
Rockies vs Rays Preview, Starting Lineups, Predictions
Rockies Preview
Rockies Starting Lineup
- CF Brenton Doyle
- SS Ezequiel Tovar
- 3B Ryan McMahon
- DH Kris Bryant
- 1B Michael Toglia
- C Hunter Goodman
- RF Nick Martini
- 2B Kyle Farmer
- LF Jordan Beck
- Starting Pitcher: Kyle Freeland
A familiar face will kickoff the season for Colorado, as Kyle Freeland will become the first pitcher in Rockies history to make four Opening Day starts. The veteran Freeland has seen his numbers going in the wrong direction over the last four seasons with his ERA climbing each year, to a 5.24 mark in 2024.
While you sometimes need to grade on a Colorado curve, that isn’t going to help Freeland. Last year he posted a 4.45 ERA and .334 wOBA allowed at home but had a 5.98 ERA and .378 wOBA on the road away from altitude. Freeland throws a five-pitch mix and his sinker, slider, fastball, and changeup all allowed an opponent average over .300.
Even with the favorable hitting environment for half of their games, the Rockies still ranked just 29th in wRC+. Colorado ranked near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, but it did at least finish in the top half of home runs.
Catcher Jacob Stallings is the only player in this lineup that finished with a wRC+ over 100 (league average) last season. FanGraphs doesn’t have a single player projected over that mark this season. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar is the best player on the team and Brenton Doyle isn’t a bad leadoff option, but this is expected to be the worst team in the National League once again.
Rays Preview
Rays Starting Lineup
- 1B Curtis Mead
- DH Yandy Diaz
- 2B Brandon Lowe
- 3B Junior Caminero
- LF Christopher Morel
- C Danny Jansen
- RF Josh Lowe
- CF Jonny DeLuca
- SS Taylor Walls
- Starting Pitcher: Ryan Pepiot
With McLanahan on the injured list, Ryan Pepiot will get the ball for his first Opening Day start. Tampa Bay acquired Pepiot from the Dodgers as part of the trade for Tyler Glasnow and he made 26 starts with a 3.60 ERA during his first big league season.
Pepiot showed promising stuff in his first year, especially his upper-90s fastball. He has above-average strikeout ability, especially when he is locating his changeup. Where Pepiot ran into trouble at times last season was allowing too many walks and allowing hard contact. He is a fly-ball pitcher who allows way too many barrels.
After finishing with a top-five offense in 2023, Tampa Bay took a big step back last season. They went from second in wRC+ to 23rd in one season. Only the Chicago White Sox scored fewer runs than the Rays last year.
Despite the struggles last season, the Rays didn’t really change much. They signed Danny Jansen at catcher but that is it. Tampa Bay will be relying on better seasons from Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe at the top of this lineup, and Junior Caminero to hit the ground running in his first full season.
Rockies vs Rays Prediction, Over/Under Analysis
For an Opening Day matchup, these are two pitchers I have a hard time trusting. Pepiot showed promise, but he can struggle with his command at times, and he ranks in the bottom 25% of the league with a 9.1% barrel rate allowed. The only reason he is getting the nod in this spot is because of the injury to McClanahan.
On the other hand, Freeland is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. His 5.11 xERA ranked in the bottom 10% of baseball, as did his xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and strikeout rate. In his last two Opening Day starts, Freeland has allowed a total of 15 runs.
However, the biggest reason I like the over in this matchup is the ballpark they will be playing in. George M. Steinbrenner Field has outfield dimensions designed to replicate Yankee Stadium. That means a short porch in right field, just 314 feet from home plate.
The only difference compared to the Bronx? It will be 85 degrees on this March afternoon. The ball will fly a lot more than it did in the climate-controlled Tropicana Field. Pepiot had a 10.4 K/9 rate pitching in a dome last season but just an 8.7 K/9 rate outside.
On the flip side, Brandon and Josh Lowe, a pair of pull-hitting lefties, should really benefit from the short-short porch. Brandon Lowe has eight career home runs at Yankee Stadium, his most of any road ballpark, and Josh Lowe has hit three home runs in seven games.
This number is too low given the sub-par pitching matchup and ideal hitting conditions.
Pick: Over 7.5 (Play to 8)
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline for this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play here since I prefer to go with the total.
Over/Under
I see value on the over in this matchup.
Rockies vs Rays Parlay
- Tampa Bay Rays ML (-205)
- Over 7.5
- Brandon Lowe over 1.5 Total Bases
Parlay Odds: +355 (DraftKings)
I expect a lot of runs scored by both teams, but I definitely favor Pepiot and the Rays over Freeland and this Rockies lineup. Despite the lefty vs. lefty matchup, I still like this spot for Brandon Lowe. He led the Rays in OPS and home runs last year and could have a monster season with the short porch in right field.
Freeland actually has reversed splits for a left-handed pitcher. Left-handed hitters hit .329 against him with a .953 OPS last season, compared to just .285 with a .815 OPS for right-handed bats. Target Brandon Lowe for player props Friday and don’t be surprised if he hits one out to help you cash all three of these.
Rockies vs Rays Betting Trends
Rockies vs Rays Injuries
Rockies Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Austin Gomber | Left shoulder (15-day IL) |
| INF Thairo Estrada | Right wrist fracture (10-day IL) |
Rays Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Shane McClanahan | Left triceps (15-day IL) |
| SS Ha-Seong Kim | Right shoulder (10-day IL) |
| INF/OF Richie Palacios | Fractured finger (10-day IL) |
| RHP Alex Faedo | Right shoulder (15-day IL) |
