Austin Gomber's numbers aren't helped by pitching at Coors Field, but he allows hard contact, barely strikes anyone out and does not necessarily keep the ball on the ground wherever he's pitching.
We're going to fade him with tonight's Rockies vs. Nationals prediction.
Rockies vs. Nationals Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +125 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -150 |
Rockies vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| Stat | ||
|---|---|---|
| 3-8 | W-L | 2-5 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 4.82/5.03 | ERA /xERA | 4.25/3.46 |
| 4.96/4.40 | FIP / xFIP | 4.20/3.74 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 11.2% | K-BB% | 20.4% |
| 40.6% | GB% | 36.1% |
| 79 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 103 | Location+ | 97 |
D.J. James’ Rockies vs Nationals Preview
Colorado Rockies Betting Preview: Gomber Is an Easy Fade
Gomber has a 4.82 ERA and 5.03 xERA, allowing an Average Exit Velocity of about 90 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 37th percentile. His walk rate may be under 6%, but his strikeout rate is under 17%.
The Nationals do not walk much, so Gomber's walk rate may not be his best friend against a team that makes contact. He has had some success away from home of late, but he may not be reliable enough in this pairing.
The Rockies have a 60 wRC+, 6.8% walk rate and 33.1% strikeout rate in the last month against lefties. Yes, they have four active bats with more than eight plate appearances with those parameters in place above a .320 xwOBA, but much of this order has not been productive. Since they strike out so often, Herz could have a field day.
The Colorado bullpen has a 4.58 xFIP in the last month with an 8.7% walk rate and sub-19% strikeout rate. They only have two active arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so the Rockies could be in quite the conundrum if Gomber is giving up hard contact.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Herz Could Have Big Day
Herz is clearly the better starter in this matchup with a 4.25 ERA and 3.46 xERA this season.
The lefty should start seeing favorable results down the stretch because he has not had a lucky season. His Average Exit Velocity is a touch above 90 mph, but his Hard-Hit Rate is above average so he does not allow these hard hits as often. His ground-ball rate is subpar, but he boasts a 28.3% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate. Since Colorado strikes out so often, this is the number to keep an eye on since it's the most significant mismatch for the Rockies.
The Nationals have a 104 wRC+ with a 6.1% walk rate and 16.6% strikeout rate in the last month against lefties. This team simply makes contact, so Gomber may just not fare well here. Similar to the Rockies, the Nationals have four active bats above a .320 xwOBA with more than eight plate appearances in the last month when facing a southpaw, but much of this lineup has shown promise in limited plate appearances.
The Nationals have a 4.78 xFIP in the last month with an 8% walk rate and sub-16% strikeout rate and also only have two arms under a 4.00 xFIP. That said, despite accruing pitches via the punch out and potentially walks, Herz should be able to throw deep into this game to preserve bullets for the Nats’ relief corps.
Rockies vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Gomber and the Rockies are weaker than Herz and the Nationals. This one is simple. Herz should miss plenty of bats and give much of the Rockies’ lineup a hard time, while Gomber’s lack of strikeouts or walks plays into the Nationals’ style of making contact at the dish. Back the Nationals, even though both bullpens are about even. Take them from -142 to -164.
Pick: Washington Nationals -142 to -164
Moneyline
-142 (Yes)
Run Line (Spread)
-1.5 (No)
Over/Under
8.5 (No)
