Cubs vs Cardinals Odds & Betting Prediction | MLB Betting Preview
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+170 | 8 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-210 | 8 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +100 |
The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals will begin a three-game series at Busch Stadium on Friday night as we wrap up the first half of the MLB season.
These two old NL Central rivals are both in the National League wild card hunt as of right now, but may need to make up some ground going forward. Currently the Cardinals (48-44) have a one-game lead on the third wild card spot and are five games out of the division lead. Chicago (45-49) is nine games out of the NL Central lead but just three games back in the wild card race, so it’s certainly not over yet.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds have St. Louis installed as a heavy favorite tonight at -205 on the moneyline with an over/under of 8 (-115o/-105u). Let’s take a look at my Cubs vs Cardinals prediction for Friday, July 12.
Chicago Cubs
Kyle Hendricks will take the bump for Chicago in this matchup. The veteran had been relegated to bullpen duty earlier this season before being forced back into the starting rotation due to injuries. He is currently having the worst year of his career with a 7.53 ERA but his xERA of 5.14 and SIERA of 4.47 do suggest that he has been a bit unlucky.
Hendricks’ HR/FB ratio is 19.1%, which is the highest mark of his career by far. This also goes along with his .333 BABIP and 57.3% strand rate, which are both the worst in his career, to explain how everything has gone against him this season.
Despite these alarming contact numbers, Hendricks ranks in the 95th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, 96th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 68th percentile in barrel rate. He also has a 64th percentile ground ball rate allowed, so while he has been unlucky in the contact quality department, these numbers and his track record suggest that he may be closer to his typical numbers going forward.
Never one to strike out many batters, Hendricks ranks in the 13th percentile in strikeout rate and 10th percentile in whiff rate. His 7.1% walk rate is the highest of his career, but still ranks in the 64th percentile as he has always had above average control.
Chicago’s offense has gone through some struggles this season. They are 18th in wRC+ and 20th in wOBA. This offense seems to lack pop as they are 22nd in ISO and 23rd in SLG. Chicago strikes out at the 10th-highest rate in the Majors but also has the 4th-highest walk rate.
This season the Cubs rank 21st in hard hit rate, 13th in barrel rate, and 18th in exit velocity. Chicago also hits the ball on the ground at the 9th highest rate in the league but they also hit the 7th most fly balls. This is because line drives are basically non-existent in this offense, as they rank 27th in line drive rate.
St. Louis Cardinals
Sonny Gray will get the start for the Cardinals tonight. He has been the ace of this staff so far after joining the squad as a free agent this offseason. Gray has a 3.30 ERA in 92.2 IP with a 3.28 xERA, 2.65 FIP, and 2.94 SIERA.
Gray has 115 strikeouts this season in those 92.2 IP and a 31.1% strikeout rate, which is the highest of his career. Gray’s strikeout rate ranks in the 93rd percentile and he has a 69th percentile whiff rate. His 107 Stuff+ and 106 Pitching+ both rank 16th this season among 68 qualifying pitchers.
Gray doesn’t walk many batters, with just a 6.5% walk rate. Despite his success, he has allowed a bit more quality contact than normal, ranking in the 37th percentile in hard hit rate, 32nd percentile in barrel rate, and 28th percentile in average exit velocity. However, Gray has been able to keep 46.5% of these balls on the ground (67th percentile), limiting the overall damage.
The Cardinals’ offense this season can probably be described as average at best. They rank 16th in wRC+ and 19th in wOBA. They are 18th in OBP, 19th in SLG, 23rd in runs scored, and 24th in ISO.
This team has been a bit better offensively as of late as they have started to get healthier. Willson Contreras and Lars Nootbar are both back from injury after missing large chunks of the season and Tommy Edman will be rejoining this lineup in the next week or so. Over the last 30 days they rank 14th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA, so they are improving a bit, but still aren’t great.
The most concerning part about the Cardinals offense to me is their lack of quality contact. They are 28th in hard hit rate, 28th in barrel rate, and 25th in average exit velocity.
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Kyle Hendricks has been burdened this season by some extremely bad luck. He isn’t allowing hard contact and he is keeping the batted balls on the ground, but is being hurt by home runs and balls in play worse than ever before. His uptick in walks is slight cause for concern but everything I see suggests that Hendricks is still a 4.50 to 5.00 ERA type guy like he has been for the last few years.
St. Louis’ offense doesn’t take a lot of walks and doesn’t make quality contact often enough where I would worry about this matchup tonight. I think Hendricks can start to get back on the right track against the Cardinals.
Sonny Gray has the highest strikeout rate of his career as he has been mowing down hitters with his sweeper and sinker. This Cubs’ offense hasn’t hit the ball extremely well either and they have a high strikeout rate, which should lead to Gray having a strong outing.
Each of these starters has the ability to go deep into a game when everything is clicking, which I think it will be on both ends tonight. I expect a pitching duel between Gray and Hendricks, with this game going well under the total of 8 runs.
