Cubs vs. Giants Odds
| Cubs Odds | +154 |
| Giants Odds | -184 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-106 / -114) |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the fourth and final game of a series featuring the San Francisco Giants hosting the Chicago Cubs. We have had some tightly contested, relatively low-scoring games thus far so far and a trend we could see once again on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.
Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a “same-game parlay,” my approach is all or nothing.
While that statement is sort of like “the sky is blue,” let me explain. In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything from coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s okay. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0 for 3 or 2 for 3 on a parlay.
That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have four plays below for this featured game between the Cubs and Giants. Let's a take a look at the selections.
The Parlay (+490):
- Carlos Rodon — Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+104)
- Patrick Wisdom — Record a Hit (+100)
- Adrian Sampson — Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-320)
- Chicago +2.5 (-250)
Same-Game Parlay — Cubs vs. Giants
Carlos Rodon — Under 7.5 Strikeouts
We are starting this parlay out with a fade of San Francisco's projected starting pitcher Carlos Rodon. Through 20 starts, the left-hander is 8-6 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season.
While those numbers are good, Rodon has started to regress lately. Over his last two starts, Rodon is 0-1 with an 8.18 ERA.
One of those starts was against the Dodgers, so we can not really blame him too much for that. However, It was the most recent start against the Diamondbacks that is a cause for concern.
Following up his poor performance against Los Angeles, Rodon surrendered five earned runs through six innings against a much worse Diamondbacks lineup. If Rodon starts to slip early, I would not be shocked if the Giants keep him on a shorter leash in this game.
Over his last six starts, Rodon has gone under this total four times. Through five career starts against the Cubs, Rodon is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, going under 7.5 strikeouts in three of those five outings.
Patrick Wisdom — Record a Hit
If we are thinking that Rodon won't make people whiff all night, then it's a fair assumption that we will get some contact from Cubs' hitters (and hopefully a few hits). Enter Patrick Wisdom.
Wisdom's excellence lately has been flying under the radar, recording at least one hit in seven of his last 10 games. Since he did not record a hit last time out, I'm buying low on the Cubs' third basemen.
Following a game where he did not achieve a hit, Wisdom has recorded a hit in the following game at a 73% clip over his last 11 such instances. Wisdom's splits are much stronger against left-handed pitchers this season as he boasts a .264 BA, .362 OBP, .527 SLG, and .889 OPS overall.
Even if Wisdom does not record a hit against Rodon, then he could rack one up against San Francisco's bullpen. Since June 1, the Giants' relief pitching ranks just 28th in the league in batting average.
Adrian Sampson — Over 2.5 Strikeouts
While I am fading Rodon's strikeout prop, I am backing Chicago's starter Adrian Sampson. Through eight pitching appearances this season, the right-hander is 0-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP overall.
Since joining the starting rotation, Sampson has been very sound, and I expect him to remain in that spot for the rest of the year. Even when he was a relief pitcher, Sampson had no issue in racking up strikeouts as he has gone over 2.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances.
This trend should continue against a Giants club that strikes out a lot against right-handers. Since June 1, San Francisco ranks just 27th in the league in strikeout percentage when facing right-handed pitchers.
The starting pitcher for Chicago has gone over this number in all three of this series' previous games.
Chicago +2.5 (-250)
If I am fading Rodon and backing both Wisdom and Sampson, then it only makes sense that I also back Chicago as a whole. The club hasn't lost a game by three or more runs in any of the three previous games in this series.
In fact, the Cubs have covered +2.5 in each of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, San Francisco has failed to cover -2.5 in each of their last 10 games.
Those are some immensely strong trends, which explains the juice on this line. However, I believe the juice is worth the squeeze as this Cubs team is a tad better than people give them credit for, granted they still are not very good.
There certainly is a gap of talent between Sampson and Rodon, but I am not sure there is a three-run gap, especially considering how bad San Francisco's bullpen has been if Rodon does jump up to a big early lead.
Chicago's been in better form recently, and asking them to not lose by three or more runs should hopefully not be too tall of an order.
