Cubs vs. Mets Odds
| Cubs Odds | +170 |
| Mets Odds | -200 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Cubs pulled off one of the most improbable upsets of the season as they defeated Mets' ace Jacob deGrom on Tuesday night. While they were able to scratch only three runs off deGrom, that was all they needed as Adrian Sampson and the Cubs staff held the Mets to just one run.
The Cubs are now only one win away from sweeping New York and potentially tightening up the race for the NL East. To try and accomplish that, Chicago will hand the ball to Drew Smyly. The lefty has been solid and will look to build on his fantastic performance in his last start.
To try and salvage the series, the Mets will turn to a lefty of their own in David Peterson, who has been one of the unsung heroes for this club as he's provided quality innings in multiple different roles this season. However, the Mets will need him to step up once more as their divisional lead has been trimmed to just a half-game.
So, which lefty will come through for his team in this series finale? Let's dive in to find out.
Chicago Cubs
While the Cubs may have built some offensive momentum in the first two games of this series, throwing a lefty at them may be a way to stifle them. They have not had a ton of success against left-handed pitching this season, entering this matchup ranked 21st in team batting average and wOBA against lefties. However, they'll also be without Willson Contreras, who is perhaps their best hitter against left-handers.
On top of their own struggles, Peterson has not been an average lefty this season — he's actually taken his game up a notch. His stuff has been drastically better as he's throwing harder and generating many more swings and misses.
Peterson's improved velocities and spin rate have made his slider a weapon. He's throwing 5% more than he did last season, and the results have been excellent. Opposing batters have hit just .180 off Peterson's slider and have an incredible 47.5 whiff rate. That number is key because if there's one thing the Cubs have proven to do against lefties, it's strikeout. Chicago holds the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors.
Peterson should have plenty of success in this outing as long as his slider is sharp. His big issue in recent starts has been giving out free passes, but the Cubs also happen to hold the fifth lowest walk rate against lefties.
New York Mets
The Mets bats have been largely quiet in this series, but how well they were swinging it prior to this series suggests they are due to break out. Over the last two weeks, the Mets rank sixth in team batting average, eighth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+. Most of that has been done without Starling Marte in the two hole as he is recovering from a fractured finger.
In addition to their recent hot hitting, the Mets will have their lineup stacked with righties who have particularly excelled against left-handed pitching this season: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Eduardo Escobar, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Mark Canha all have an OPS over .700 against lefties this season. That is bad news for Smyly, who has very impressive underlying metrics with a top 10% ranking in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but that is primarily made up by his dominance of lefties.
Right-handed hitters have fared much better.
Righties have hit .255 and have a .296 BABIP against Smyly. His slugging percentage allowed is also 105 points higher than it is against lefties. Those numbers also get worse on the road: His BAA jumps to .278, and his wOBA against goes from .286 at home to .351 on the road. These numbers all support his FIP and xERA being substantially higher than his season ERA.
Regression is coming for Smyly, and all signs point to it beginning in Queens.
Cubs-Mets Pick
The Cubs taking the first two games of this series has been shocking as they've defeated two of the Mets' best starters while also holding their bats in check. However, that may all change on Wednesday night as the Mets are poised to pounce on Smyly while Peterson carves up the Cubs order.
Both of these starters will likely not go very deep into this game, so our angle for this one will not, either. I'm backing the Mets to be up halfway through.
Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (-120)
