Cubs vs. Padres Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+148 | 8.5 -113 / -107 | +1.5 -148 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -177 | 8.5 -113 / -107 | -1.5 +118 |
The Cubs have come into San Diego and taken two of three, guaranteeing at least a split of this enticing four-game set at Petco Park. Can San Diego avoid slipping further into a funk, or will Chicago pick up its second straight series victory?
Let's break down how to bet Cubs vs. Padres series finale in my preview below.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have really struggled at the dish lately, yet they're the team that enters this one with four wins in six games. They did break out for seven runs on Sunday against Ryan Weathers but prior to that had scored just five runs in their last five games, ranking 26th in wRC+ over the last week of play.
There may be a little reprieve here considering the Cubs will be going up against a lefty and rank fourth in wRC+ to southpaws, but they're also a very swing-and-miss happy team. Chicago owns a 25% strikeout rate against lefties and over the last week has struck out in an unsightly 30.7% of plate appearances.
Things won't get any easier for the Cubs with Kyle Hendricks on the mound, either. The veteran has still not rediscovered the art of pitching to contact, recording a .317 xBA through two starts with a ghastly 11.4% walk rate. Those are two numbers we've rarely seen from Hendricks in his career, and it seems his steady regression has only continued this year.
This is still a very small sample, but at the very least it's clear Hendricks is still trying to settle into a rhythm this season despite some decent results in his first two outings.
San Diego Padres
The Padres will have an embattled starter of their own take the ball here in the form of Blake Snell. The lefty's walk rate continues to be poor at 13.7%, and his career-long mark now stands at a whopping 10.6%. He's only struck out 24.6% of the batters he's faced, which is nearly eight points lower than where he was last year, and his .259 xBA is a career-worst.
Snell has always had issues with walks and barrels, but in the past his elite strikeout rates have saved him. This is the first year he's fallen below 31% — and he's a long way off that mark.
The Padres' offense is still not where it needs to be. They own an 83 wRC+ over the last week of play and have been dealing with injuries to Xander Bogaerts and Rougned Odor in recent days after losing Nelson Cruz at the end of May.
If there's one positive note on the roster front, it's that this Padres bullpen should be relatively well-rested with Drew Carlton and Domingo Tapia eating most of the innings yesterday behind Weathers.
Cubs vs. Padres Betting Pick
I rarely bet on Snell, but I think this is the spot for it. The Cubs cannot stop striking out, and that should really help alleviate some of the batted ball and walk concerns for the lefty. This is a picture-perfect matchup for him to start getting that strikeout rate back up, and even if he struggles in the middle of his outing there should be a stable of relievers ready to rescue him.
On the other side, it's a pretty easy call to fade Hendricks here considering he's all out of sorts to begin his 2023 campaign. It comes on the heels of a very bad 2022, and there's no reason to expect he's going to be anything but a pitching machine out there.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+116) |
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