Cubs vs. Padres Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -175 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +145 |
After an utterly bizarre loss on Monday from eight runs up, the Cubs returned some normalcy to their three-game series in San Diego by notching a 5-1 victory.
With one of their biggest liabilities of the season thus far on the hill, can Chicago come away with a series win that should've already been assured after Tuesday's victory?
Here's Cubs vs. Padres odds and a prediction for Wednesday.
Chicago Cubs
Let's quickly give the Cubs their flowers before breaking down their starting pitcher on Wednesday. They sit seventh in wRC+ through 10 games, boasting the best walk rate in the league and the seventh-best strikeout rate at just 19.2%.
They're putting the ball in play a bunch, and with the second-best barrel rate in baseball, it's no surprise that they've earned a robust .166 Isolated Power to sit seventh in the league.
This team has the look and feel of a World Series contender, but several questions still exist throughout this pitching staff.
The bullpen infamously blew an 8-0 lead on Monday. Blame could mainly be placed on the shoulders of Jose Cuas, though the usually-sturdy Luke Little and Adbert Alzolay each allowed a run apiece.
The staff has been just fine — even without the injured Justin Steele — except for the man who'll get the ball in the rubber game.
Kyle Hendricks found his touch again last season at 33 years of age after it looked like a decline had hit him incredibly quickly. He brought his ground-ball rate back up to 47.4%, though he did still pitch to a poor .269 xBA and benefited greatly from a solid infield defense.
The unfortunate part here is that Chicago's infield defense (first in baseball a season ago in Outs Above Average) has taken a huge step back to start the season (25th).
It's certainly too early to panic, but the glove of Christopher Morel at third base has been a huge issue, and that's not exactly what you want to see as a ground-ball pitcher.
Outside of that, Hendricks has had some issues arise with walks this year and his changeup hasn't quite been as sharp as it was last season. However, the infield defense is likely the biggest culprit here.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have been touted as one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking inside the top 10 in wRC+ to this point.
But it's hard to really trust the sample size.
They've had three isolated breakouts, one of which came in the Japan Series in a very wacky 15-11 game against the Dodgers. They also had a game against a rookie making his first career start and another was really started by Cuas letting them back in a game they had no business winning.
If I sound like a hater, that's because I am one. I still feel pretty justified in doubting this offense, particularly since it's failed to draw walks at a high rate after leading the league in that category a season ago.
And while the strikeouts have been down this year and the power has still been there, the Padres have put the ball on the ground at a much higher clip than last season and haven't displayed any sort of consistency with their loud hits.
Speaking of loud hits, let's talk about Dylan Cease. He's had some issues with barrels over the course of his career and allowed a career-high 41.6% of batted balls to come back at 95+ mph a season ago. That's largely been palatable, given his elite strikeout numbers.
He did take a step back in that area a year ago (by three whole percentage points), and while he's back up at a spicy 30.2% this year, he had the benefit of pitching twice against the Giants, who aren't exactly known for their plate discipline.
He also continues to walk too many batters, issuing two free passes in each of his first two starts, which is par for the course when you're dealing with a guy walking over 10.4% of batters for his career.
Cubs vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Cubs don't strike out, and they do walk a ton. This is a recipe for disaster against Cease, who survives off of punching out batters.
Things may seem fine on the surface through two starts, but we have a whole season of data to work with from 2023. That data pointed to fewer strikeouts, and also know his first two matchups were quite friendly in this regard.
San Diego, meanwhile, isn't an offense I'm totally willing to trust at the moment, given the sporadic nature of its power. And with an increased ground-ball rate near 50% this season, I think it should play right into the hands of a ground-ball pitcher in Hendricks on Wednesday.
There are some legitimate concerns about the third-base position right now, but given the absolutely incredible numbers we saw from this team a year ago — which returned its middle infield and has a league-average first baseman — I think things will turn around in time.
The Cubs — and their starter — are in a matchup that you want to play every time, and while the over is a strong look here, I think you need to bank on the more reliable of the two offenses to take this one.
