Cubs vs. Pirates Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -140 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +115 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -140 |
The Chicago Cubs head in PNC Park for the first of a three-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night. Drew Smyly and Osvaldo Bido will also go head to head for the second time in a week. The Pirates roughed Smyly up for five earned runs on June 14 before the Cubs gained an eventual 10-6 victory.
Chicago Cubs
After a surprisingly strong start to the season for left-hander Drew Smyly, he has been getting crushed over his last four starts with an ERA of 6.23 and a WHIP of 1.64 over that span. His poor recent results should not shock anybody, as his stuff rates poorly and his reasonable Hard-contact Rates seemed unsustainable as a result.
Smyly's Stuff+ rating comes in below average at 88. He's throwing his curveball 50% of the time and works a 91 MPH sinker off of that. His xwOBA has spiked considerably over the last 100 PAs, and it seems that batters are figuring out his current mix.
Every pitcher goes through periods of time without his best stuff, but Smyly's current run seems to be more the case of a pitcher who overachieved early on and will continue trending downward as the league figures him out.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have been considerably more potent against left-handed pitching this season than righties. In 790 PAs against LHP, they own a 111 wRC+ with a .333 wOBA, both ranking 11th in the majors. Their strong play versus lefties continued last week, when they smacked 11 hard-hit balls against the lefty Smyly in their dominant offensive outing.
They are also the best team in the league against the curveball, with a wCB value of +18 that is significantly ahead of the Braves in second.
You would think Smyly could rely on his sinker a little more tonight in an attempt to shake up a losing plan from the last time out. Batters own an xSLG rate of .598 versus Smyly's sinker though, and his strong results this season had been reliant upon minimal opposition success against the curveball.
Bryan Reynolds recorded three hits with a home run in the June 14 matchup versus Smyly and is now batting .381 lifetime over a sample of 19 ABs against him.
Smyly is throwing his curveball 51% of the time this season. That does not mesh well in a matchup versus Reynolds, who's batting .378 against breaking stuff and slugging .703. His .703 slug rate against breaking pitches is the third-best mark in the league among qualified batters.
Reynolds' slug rates versus lefties are slightly down this year, but historically being such a strong switch hitter has allowed him to maintain relatively even splits.
Cubs vs. Pirates Betting Pick
The Pirates are in all of their most favorable splits versus Smyly, and it seems likely that they should put together a strong offensive showing on Monday. A play on them to go over their team total of 4.5 at +110 is a solid look, as well as for Smyly to allow over 2.5 earned runs at -140.
That's not my favorite approach to fading Smyly today, however. Bryan Reynolds has terrorized Smyly before, and there are a number of factors which will always be in his favor. He is priced at +100 to record over 1.5 total bases tonight, and that is my favorite bet for this matchup.
Pick: Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases |
